Warren rejects CLARITY Act, backs crypto rules with conditions

Conflict-of-interest restrictions involving senior federal officials have since remained among the largest obstacles in CLARITY Act negotiations. Lawmakers have also discussed illicit finance provisions, decentralized finance oversight, stablecoin rewards and the scope of the CFTC's authority.

Prospects for an immediate Senate vote faded Thursday after Majority Leader John Thune did not file cloture on a motion to proceed to the bill. A cloture filing would begin the procedural countdown needed to limit debate and bring the legislation toward floor consideration. Without it, a weekend vote became increasingly difficult even if senators remained in Washington beyond Friday.

Thune instead filed cloture on a substitute amendment to H.R. 6500, the motion to proceed to the Protect College Sports Act of 2026 and Todd Blanche's nomination to be attorney general. The CLARITY Act was absent from the list despite continued negotiations among Republicans, Democrats and the White House.

Prediction-market traders have become increasingly doubtful that Congress will approve the legislation this year. Polymarket placed the probability of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at roughly 17% on Thursday, a 48% decline over the measured period.

Warren's opposition adds to the challenge facing Senate leaders, who need Democratic support to overcome the chamber's 60-vote threshold. Further movement will depend on whether negotiators can reach agreements on ethics, consumer protection, illicit finance and agency authority before lawmakers leave for the August recess.

The CLARITY Act odds had already sunk after the Senate delay. Warren's public rejection gives Democratic leadership a clearer target for what would need to change to bring her on board. Whether the bill's sponsors can meet that bar without losing Republican support is the open question as the recess clock ticks.