CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill

Polymarket traders cut the CLARITY Act's chances of becoming law in 2026 to a record-low 27% after the Senate postponed action on the crypto market structure bill.

The contract asking whether crypto market structure legislation will become law in 2026 fell to 27% on July 29. Galaxy Digital also lowered its estimated probability of passage to 30% as negotiations extend further into the Senate calendar.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune postponed action while lawmakers considered a Russia sanctions package and a group of federal nominees. The Senate voted July 28 to advance the sanctions legislation, leaving fewer working days for the crypto bill before the Aug. 8 recess.

Industry participants have urged Thune to begin the cloture process before the break, even if the Senate cannot complete a final vote. A procedural vote could establish whether the measure has enough bipartisan support to advance later in the year.

Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego and Republican Sen. Thom Tillis are finalizing a bipartisan counteroffer covering ethics restrictions in the bill. The lawmakers expect to submit the language to the White House within days.

Tillis indicated the proposal could allow state attorneys general to enforce its ethics provisions instead of giving that authority only to the Department of Justice. Ethics rules covering elected officials and their financial interests in digital assets have become a central point in negotiations.

A separate dispute over stablecoin rewards could create another delay. Banking groups have pushed lawmakers to restrict yield-bearing products that may compete with traditional deposits. Crypto companies argue that broad limits could reduce consumer choice.

Even if senators reach an ethics agreement, the bill must still clear procedural thresholds, pass the Senate and resolve differences with the House version. Those steps make passage before the recess increasingly unlikely.

The CLARITY Act would divide digital asset oversight between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its supporters say the framework would give exchanges, token issuers and blockchain developers clearer rules for operating in the United States.

Florida Rep. Mike Haridopolos renewed his support during a July 28 appearance on Fox Business. He warned that continued delays could send investment and jobs to countries with clearer regulations.

BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Franklin Templeton, Fidelity, Charles Schwab and SoFi have also supported passage, challenging claims that Wall Street broadly opposes the legislation.

"The Big Bank Lobby is trying to say that all of Wall Street is opposed to the Clarity Act. That's completely false." – Sen. Cynthia Lummis

The Consumer Technology Association has made a similar economic argument, warning that regulatory uncertainty could push capital and employment outside the country.

Goldman Sachs carries an AlphaScala Alpha Score of 59 (Moderate). Charles Schwab scores 63 (Moderate). Both firms have publicly backed the bill.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the regulator remains prepared to address parts of the crypto market structure debate through agency rulemaking if Congress fails to act.

Atkins described the SEC as "ready, willing and able" to write rules under its existing authority. He said legislation remains preferable because a statute would provide a more durable framework than regulations that a future administration could revise.

Independent SEC action may clarify how the agency treats certain tokens, trading platforms and tokenized securities. It would not fully replace legislation establishing statutory jurisdiction between the SEC and CFTC.

The bipartisan ethics counteroffer is now the bill's most immediate test. White House acceptance could help negotiations continue after the recess. The Senate calendar and unresolved stablecoin dispute leave the CLARITY Act facing its weakest outlook so far.

For more on the legislative push and industry reaction, see our earlier coverage: CLARITY Act delay risks US crypto lead, Haridopolos warns and Goldman CEO backs CLARITY Act as banks fight stablecoin rewards.