Walmart reports Q2 earnings before the bell Thursday. Analysts see $0.65 EPS, $168.53B revenue. CFO flagged tax refunds as a factor. Bernstein notes uncertainty from tariff lapping.
Walmart reports fiscal second-quarter earnings before the opening bell Thursday, offering a fresh read on the U.S. consumer. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect earnings per share of $0.65 on revenue of $168.53 billion.
The retailer has largely held up better than peers, but CFO John David Rainey told CNBC that higher tax refunds may have "muted" some pressure on consumers early in the year. "It's something that we're keeping a close eye on, but that expectation is built into our guidance for the second quarter," Rainey said.
Bernstein analysts wrote in late July that Walmart is seeing a slowdown in comparable sales from lapping tariff-driven price increases. "This, combined with price cut talks from grocers and weak read-across from peers, plus ongoing inflationary pressure on the low-income consumer has created an elevated level of uncertainty," they wrote. Still, they see Walmart in a "strong fundamental position" on pricing and assortment.
Competitor Target reported a $752 million boost to net earnings from tariff refunds. Home Depot added $685 million of its refunds to reduce cost of goods sold. Walmart is expected to offer some color on how tariff refunds shaped its own quarter. Home Depot, which carries an AlphaScala Alpha Score of 48, also reported tariff refunds.
The report arrives as Walmart's stock is up 13% year to date. The company's guidance for the full year, issued last quarter, fell short of Wall Street expectations. Rainey said that expectation is built into the current quarter's outlook.
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