
CLARITY Act odds fall to 27% as Trump remains silent on bipartisan ethics proposal; Senate recess deadline Friday, final vote unlikely before August 7.
President Donald Trump has not signed off on the bipartisan ethics counterproposal designed to break the CLARITY Act logjam, leaving the crypto bill's path to passage uncertain as the Senate heads for its August recess this week. Polymarket data show the odds of Trump signing the bill into law this year have fallen to 27%, a new low.
Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett, citing sources familiar with the matter, said the White House has yet to respond to the proposal put forward by Senators Thom Tillis and Ruben Gallego. The counterproposal would empower state attorneys general to sue the Department of Justice if the DOJ fails to enforce the ethics provision. That shift is meant to address Democratic concerns that the earlier version–which gave the DOJ sole enforcement power–lacked checks.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has not yet filed a motion for cloture on the CLARITY Act. Based on the Senate calendar, a final vote is unlikely before Friday at the earliest. The chamber is scheduled to leave for recess by the end of the week, tightening the window.
Beyond the ethics fight, the bill faces renewed law enforcement opposition. The National Sheriffs' Association raised fresh concerns about the BRCA provision, arguing it would make it harder to crack down on illicit finance. Similar pushback has come from prosecutors and law enforcement groups in recent weeks.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed back on those criticisms. Bessent said non-custodial builders and developers are not–and have never been–subject to registration obligations under the Bank Secrecy Act. The CLARITY Act, he argued, simply codifies the department's long-standing policy.
The odds of passage have been sliding. The current 27% probability on Polymarket is down from above 30% last week and from peaks above 50% earlier this year. The CLARITY Act odds sink to 27% after Senate delays crypto bill captures the market's deteriorating view.
A delay beyond the August recess would push the bill into the fall, when the legislative calendar competes with appropriations and the 2026 campaign cycle. Some Republican senators have warned that a CLARITY Act delay risks US crypto lead, Haridopolos warns.
The Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote later this week. A final passage before recess would require cloture, unanimous consent on amendments, and a floor vote–all within the next three days.
Drafted by a large language model from the source reporting linked above, then screened by automated publishing checks. It is not read by a journalist before publication. Some articles cite our Alpha Score. Verify prices and figures against the original source. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.