
Treasury plans to double long-end buybacks this fall, supporting longer-dated bonds. FOMC minutes show rate hike risk if inflation persists. MBS prices slipped Thursday.
The Treasury said it will at least double the maximum size of its long-end bond buybacks starting this fall, a move that rallied longer-dated Treasuries and agency MBS on Wednesday. The rally was tempered by a $16 billion 20-year auction that met tepid demand.
Some analysts characterized the buyback plan as a form of Operation Twist, where the central bank sells short-term bonds and buys longer-term ones to lower long-term rates without expanding its balance sheet. The announcement offered relief from persistent pressure on the long end, which had been driven by inflation expectations and fiscal deficits, pressures compounded by heavy tech-sector borrowing, traders said.
The 20-year auction tailed slightly, according to Treasury data, signaling lingering demand concerns.
The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes, released Wednesday afternoon, added caution. Many policymakers saw a rate hike as necessary if inflation does not ease, the minutes showed. Traders said the market was balancing improved technical support for the long end against the risk that persistent inflation keeps the Fed from cutting rates.
Thursday's economic data offered little direction. Weekly jobless claims came in at 206,000, roughly in line with expectations, while continuing claims stood at 1.799 million. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index also printed.
Agency MBS prices opened Thursday worse by 0.125 to 0.250 points depending on coupon and maturity, compared with Wednesday's close. The 2-year yield stood at 4.19%, the 10-year at 4.69% after closing at 4.65% the prior session.
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