Treasury Doubles Long-Dated Buybacks, Lifting SoFi, Affirm, Upstart

Fintech names jumped at midday Wednesday after the Treasury Department said it would increase buybacks of long-dated government debt. SoFi Technologies rose 6% to $18.66. Upstart Holdings gained 8% to $31.58. Affirm Holdings added 7% to $78.55.

The move followed a sharp retreat in long-end Treasury yields. The 10-year yield fell 5 basis points to 4.65%. The 30-year yield dropped 8 basis points to 5.2%, pulling back from its highest level since 2007. Lower long-end yields tend to lift consumer lenders and high-multiple growth stocks. No company-specific catalyst appeared for any of the three names. The bid looks like a sector rebound tied to the rate shift.

SoFi shares remain down 33% year to date through Tuesday's close. The business tells a different story. In the second quarter, SoFi posted $1.2 billion in revenue, a quarterly record, and adjusted net income of $160 million, up 65% year over year. That works out to a net profit margin of 13%. Management projects adjusted earnings per share growing at a 40% annualized pace from 2025 to 2028. At a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 30x, the stock isn't cheap, but the growth math supports a premium if the plan holds. Still, the profit trajectory is young. SoFi reported its first GAAP-profitable quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023. That argues for measured position sizing even after a record quarter.

Upstart's 8% gain is the largest in the group. The stock still sits down 33% year to date, matching SoFi's drawdown. Affirm has held up far better, down just 1% year to date through Tuesday's close. Fintech weakness has been uneven. Affirm's full-chain put/call ratio is 0.73, a balanced options read heading into the second half of August.

The Global X FinTech ETF (FINX) traded at $26.80, down 12% year to date. SoFi and Affirm are top holdings at 4.1% and 3.8% of net assets, respectively. Upstart carries only a 0.6% weight, limiting its influence on the fund. FINX's top 10 holdings represent 39.5% of net assets, so moves in the largest payments and brokerage names can drive the fund regardless of what smaller-cap fintechs do.

The catalyst is the Treasury buyback announcement. If long-end yields reverse higher, Wednesday's gains could unwind quickly. The disconnect between SoFi's operating results and its stock price remains wide. A single up day does not close that gap. Investors should size fintech positions accordingly rather than chase a one-session rally.

For traders tracking the macro signal, the Treasury buyback program and the reaction in yields are the primary drivers to watch. The SoFi stock page and Affirm stock page offer real-time updates on these names. For broader context on how rate shifts affect growth sectors, see market analysis.