
Thune skipped the CLARITY Act in cloture filings, leaving the weekend vote in doubt. Polymarket odds sit at 17%. A floor vote still needs 60 senators.
The CLARITY Act's weekend Senate vote faded Thursday after Majority Leader John Thune filed no procedural motion to bring the crypto market structure bill to the floor.
Thune's cloture filings Wednesday covered a substitute amendment to H.R. 6500, the continuing-resolution vehicle, and Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general. He also filed on the motion to proceed to S. 4668, the Protect College Sports Act of 2026. The CLARITY Act was not on the list.
Without a cloture filing, leadership cannot begin the process that limits debate and moves a measure toward a floor vote. The omission made a weekend procedural vote increasingly difficult, even with senators expected in Washington beyond Friday.
The chamber reconvenes at 10:00 a.m. Thursday to resume consideration of nominations under Senate Resolution 817, the Senate Daily Press said. Roll-call votes were expected, though none had been scheduled.
The procedural gap came while Republicans and Democrats, with the White House still engaged, kept negotiating unresolved provisions. Sen. Thom Tillis told reporters that administration officials had begun examining parts of the proposed language.
"We've got people working with the White House right now… they're going through some of the lines right now," Tillis said.
Ethics restrictions involving senior federal officials remain one of the largest barriers. Lawmakers have also discussed provisions on illicit finance, decentralized finance, stablecoin rewards and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's authority.
Getting the bill to a vote requires 60 senators to invoke cloture. Republicans do not hold that number, so a bipartisan agreement must come before leadership schedules floor time. The bill also sits behind government funding legislation and nominations already in the procedural queue.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis has kept pressing for a vote before the August recess. The Wyoming Republican said earlier this week that lawmakers could stay in Washington through the weekend.
"I don't think we'll be leaving on Friday. I think we'll go into the weekend," Lummis said. "There are other bills in addition to the CLARITY Act that we need to take votes on before we leave for the August recess."
Lummis said Thune had reserved space for the legislation on the Senate agenda for several weeks. Her comments describe her expectation for the bill. They do not confirm that leadership scheduled a procedural vote.
Negotiators have worked on the measure for nearly 11 months. Lummis said she recently focused on its CFTC provisions while lawmakers tried to resolve differences between the parties. She has argued that Congress needs to clarify federal oversight of digital assets to keep crypto companies from moving operations outside the United States.
Prediction-market traders now doubt the legislation clears Congress this year. The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law stood at about 17% on Polymarket on Thursday, down 48% over the period shown. The contract has drawn more than $5 million in cumulative volume.
Odds traded above 70% at several points earlier in the year before sliding through June and July. Unresolved negotiations and a crowded Senate calendar narrowed the legislative window.
A bipartisan agreement after the recess could revive the bill, followed by completed procedural votes and an amendment process. Any changes to the House-passed text must clear the House again before the measure reaches the president.
The Polymarket contract resolves "Yes" only if the CLARITY Act, H.R. 3633, passes both chambers and receives the president's signature by Dec. 31.
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