New Texas DMV data shows Tesla authorized 42 driverless vehicles, one-tenth of Waymo's fleet, undercutting the robotaxi scaling narrative and TSLA's autonomy premium.
New Texas Department of Motor Vehicles records show Tesla has exactly 42 autonomous vehicles authorized for driverless ridehailing in the state. Waymo, Alphabet's self-driving unit, has 577. The data, published on May 28 under a new state law requiring commercial driverless operators to self-certify Level 4 capability, punctures the narrative that Tesla's Robotaxi service is scaling toward meaningful competition.
The simple read is that Tesla trails every major competitor. The better market read is that the gap exposes a deeper problem: certification. Waymo has long classified its fleet as Level 4 – capable of operating without a human driver on normal roads and weather. Tesla has historically labeled most of its vehicles Level 2 driver-assist systems. Self-certifying 42 vehicles as Level 4 does not make a business; it makes a test program.
Tesla's stock carries a valuation premium rooted in CEO Elon Musk's promise that driverless cars will fuel future growth. The Texas data introduces a concrete, regulator-verified snapshot that challenges that thesis.
The Texas DMV database shows:
Tesla's fleet in Texas is smaller than all three listed competitors. It is less than one-tenth the size of Waymo's Texas operation. Nationally, Waymo operates close to 4,000 vehicles across the U.S. and runs a paid service in multiple cities. Tesla's paid robotaxi service in Austin has been running since June 2025, yet the DMV data suggests that service relies on a tiny pool of cars.
Between July 2025 and April 2026, Tesla's Austin fleet experienced 17 incidents reported to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. Two of those incidents involved minor injuries, one requiring hospitalization. All incidents occurred while human safety supervisors were on board. The combination of a small fleet and a non-zero injury rate raises questions about how Tesla will handle scaling without a safety driver – a requirement for Level 4 operation without a supervisor.
Texas law previously allowed autonomous vehicle testing and operations on roadways, “as long as they meet the same safety and insurance requirements as every other vehicle on the road.” The new law, which took effect May 28, requires operators to self-certify that their AVs meet SAE Level 4 standards – an AV that can operate in normal weather and on typical roads without a human driver.
Tesla told regulators that most of its cars feature Level 2 driver assistance systems. The company has not disclosed how it came to self-certify any of its 42 vehicles as Level 4. Waymo has long counted its robotaxis as Level 4. Zoox builds purpose-built Level 4 vehicles. The gap in certification philosophy mirrors the gap in fleet scale.
Tesla has filed for driverless testing permits in Arizona, Nevada, and Florida but has not begun paid driverless rides in any of those states. The Texas disclosure may speed up similar regulatory demands in other jurisdictions. If Arizona or Nevada require comparable public reporting, the picture of Tesla's autonomous footprint could look equally thin.
The primary direct exposure is TSLA. The stock's valuation assumes that autonomy will eventually generate high-margin recurring revenue from a large fleet. The Texas data undercuts that assumption for the near term. It introduces execution risk that was previously opaque.
The broader stock market analysis had priced a Tesla autonomy premium into the stock. The Texas filings may force a repricing, especially if analysts adjust revenue models that assumed rapid fleet expansion in 2026.
For now, the Texas DMV database is the most concrete, regulator-verified dataset on Tesla's actual autonomy deployment. It shows 42 cars, 17 incidents, and no paid service outside Austin. That is not a growth story. It is a test program with a long way to go.
The next catalyst is Tesla's filing in other states. If the numbers look similar, the autonomy premium in TSLA will face sustained pressure. If Tesla surprises with rapid fleet expansion in a new market, the narrative could shift. Until then, the Texas data stands as the best available reality check on the robotaxi timeline.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.