No commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz Thursday morning after US strikes. Six ships crossed Wednesday. TotalEnergies CEO warns of prolonged blockade. Next catalyst: AIS reappearance window.
Alpha Score of 66 reflects moderate overall profile with moderate momentum, moderate value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
No commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning, ship-tracking data shows, after a second round of US strikes against Iranian military targets this week pushed operators to avoid the waterway. The halt follows a Wednesday that saw just six two-way crossings, including a Turkish Suezmax entering to load cargo in the Persian Gulf, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Iran claimed that several ships attempted unauthorized entry into the Persian Gulf overnight, some turning back and two being stopped. The assertion remains unverified. Heavy signal jamming and disabled navigation systems are obscuring actual transits. Tehran also said 26 ships crossed the strait in the past day, a figure that could include smaller coastal vessels not captured by commercial tracking.
President Donald Trump said no single nation would be allowed to control the strait, underscoring a central obstacle to any lasting agreement with Iran. The comments came after American forces intercepted Iranian drones aimed at a commercial vessel and destroyed a nearby launch unit. The US Treasury also announced sanctions against Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, accusing the agency of extorting ships to profit from regional instability.
The data shows a sharp drop from already subdued levels. Wednesday’s six two-way crossings included a Turkish Suezmax that entered after disabling its transponder, alongside two container ships entering the Gulf. A Chinese oil product tanker sailed out toward China, followed by an Iranian fuel carrier and a Greek-linked bulker.
Thursday morning recorded zero commercial transits in either direction. The absence is the most extreme since the previous round of US strikes triggered a similar pause. Operators are weighing the risk of drone interception, extortion demands, and potential collateral damage from military operations.
Widespread interference with Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals continues to cloud the picture. Independent verification of ship traffic is difficult. Transit counts may later be revised upward when vessels reappear further from high-risk waters.
The US naval presence may also distort observations. Iran-linked vessels entering or leaving the Gulf could be switching off AIS signals to avoid detection, making real-time flow tracking harder. Even before the US barred movement to and from Iranian ports, it was common for Iran-linked vessels to “go dark” when approaching Hormuz. Signals were often not restored until well into the Strait of Malacca – roughly 13 days’ sailing from Iran’s Kharg Island.
Because vessels can move without transmitting their location until they are well away from Hormuz, automated positioning signals are compiled over a large area covering the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea to detect those that may have departed or entered the Persian Gulf. When potential transits are identified, signal histories are examined to determine whether the movement appears genuine or is the result of spoofing – where electronic interference falsifies a ship’s apparent position.
Some transits may not be detected if vessels’ transponders have not been switched back on. Iran-linked oil tankers often steam from the Persian Gulf without broadcasting signals until they reach the Strait of Malacca about 10 days after passing Fujairah in the UAE. Other ships may be adopting similar tactics and will not show up on tracking screens for many days.
TotalEnergies SE CEO Patrick Pouyanne warned that a prolonged blockade threatens the global economy, adding that he does not expect free navigation to return soon, newspaper Le Figaro reported. The oil major recently freed three of its 11 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. Pouyanne said he would pursue other redress mechanisms rather than pay Iranian tolls.
TotalEnergies carries an Alpha Score of 70/100 (Moderate, Energy sector). The score reflects the company’s exposure to geopolitical risk in the region balanced by diversified upstream assets. The stock page is at /stocks/tte.
The vessels that did cross Wednesday provide a snapshot of the types of ships still willing to transit:
These are mostly vessels with direct commercial ties to Iran or China, or those willing to accept higher risk for cargo premiums. The absence of LNG carriers and very large crude carriers (VLCCs) is notable. Those classes typically require higher insurance coverage and are more sensitive to reputational risk.
Maritime war risk premiums for the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Sea have likely spiked again. Operators face a choice: pay the higher premiums, reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, or risk transiting without adequate coverage. Rerouting adds roughly 10–15 days to voyages from the Middle East to Europe or the US East Coast, increasing fuel costs and tightening tanker supply.
Factors that would confirm the risk is escalating:
Factors that would weaken the risk:
The 10-day window after vessels pass Fujairah is the next concrete checkpoint. If ships that went dark near Hormuz do not reappear on AIS within that period, the market can infer they have either been detained or have taken the longer route. That would confirm a structural shift in transit patterns.
The immediate catalyst is the reappearance of vessels that went dark near Hormuz. Traders should watch AIS feeds for signals from the Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the Strait of Malacca. A cluster of tankers popping up south of Sri Lanka would indicate a mass reroute.
On the diplomatic front, any statement from the US administration or Iranian leadership about negotiations or a temporary ceasefire would reduce the risk premium. Conversely, reports of further strikes or drone interceptions would push the risk higher.
For broader commodities exposure, see the crude oil profile and commodities analysis pages. The related article Zero Commercial Vessels Cross Strait of Hormuz After US Strikes provides additional tracking context.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the world’s most important oil chokepoint, handling about 20% of global petroleum consumption. A sustained halt in commercial traffic would force refiners to draw down inventories and accelerate the shift toward alternative supply routes. The next 48 hours will determine whether Thursday’s zero crossing count is an anomaly or the start of a prolonged disruption.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.