SpaceX starts trading on Nasdaq after a $75B IPO. History shows mega IPOs often precede market tops, but capital rotation could boost crypto. Analyst warns of excess optimism.
SpaceX starts trading on Nasdaq today after raising $75 billion in the largest IPO in history. The listing cuts both ways for crypto markets.
Some traders argue that recent outflows of over $5 billion from bitcoin ETFs were partly driven by investors pulling capital to participate in the IPO. If that capital rotates back into crypto, it could lift prices. Bitcoin traded near $63,765 at the time of the listing, having briefly dipped below $60,000 last week.
Pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, who correctly called bitcoin's selloff since October, warns that record IPOs often mark excess optimism and market tops. "The closest comparison is Saudi Aramco at $1.70T, which went public just 10 weeks before the COVID crash in 2020," he posted. "Always remember that the largest IPOs in history tend to arrive when optimism and euphoria is extreme."
Historical data backs the caution. Of the five largest IPOs before SpaceX – Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, NTT Mobile Communication Network and Visa – all but NTT occurred near major or interim tops in the S&P 500 Index. If the pattern repeats, stocks could face renewed selling pressure, and the negative sentiment could spill into risk assets including bitcoin.
The practical question for traders: what would confirm the bullish case? Capital flows back into crypto ETFs over the next week and bitcoin holding above $60,000 would signal that the IPO rotation is a temporary liquidity shift, not a top. What would break it? A weak first-day performance for SpaceX stock or a broad risk-off move that drags bitcoin below $60,000 again.
SpaceX's first-day close at 4 p.m. ET is the next concrete data point. The IPO's reception will tell traders whether the market is absorbing the supply or signaling exhaustion.
For more on the broader crypto market context, see crypto market analysis. For Bitcoin-specific data, see the Bitcoin (BTC) profile.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.