SpaceX shares have lost $1.2 trillion since June. Options flows show neutral-to-bullish trades as lock-up expiry on Aug. 6 nears, with traders eyeing the first post-IPO earnings report.
SpaceX has now erased more than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization since its June high of $225.64. That sum is almost exactly the value of Elon Musk's other company, Tesla, whose shares fell to near one-year lows. Monday marked the 13th decline in 16 sessions for SpaceX. The stock shed more than 1% to close at $113.50.
Options flows are shifting. More puts traded than calls by volume Monday: 106,000 calls versus 77,000 puts. The bulk of the $442 million in premium was tied to puts, Cboe LiveVol data show. The most popular single contract was the 330-strike call expiring Friday, a 10-cent lottery ticket with roughly a 0.3% chance of paying off, according to ThinkOrSwim data.
Four of the five largest trades by premium were neutral or bullish. That included two giant put-spread sellers. One involved a multimillion-dollar sale of in-the-money put spreads that needs SpaceX to rally. Another trader collected $1.8 million by selling 5,200 of the 100-strike puts expiring Oct. 16 and buying 7,000 of the 85-strike puts with the same expiry.
Small speculators continue to buy fat-chance calls that require the crashing stock to quickly double. The 330-strike weekly call was the session's most traded contract by volume. These bets reflect a market split between traders positioning for a rebound and those hedging deeper losses.
"As an investor it's early – as a trader, Wall Street is now punishing the AI stocks for capex," said Charles Moon, a tech and momentum specialist for Prosper Trading Academy in Chicago.
SpaceX's first earnings report since its IPO arrives next week. That report triggers a lock-up expiry. Investors can sell 20% of their eligible locked-up stock, up to 911.5 million shares, on the second full trading day after the earnings release – that is Aug. 6. The added supply could pressure the stock further, though Moon downplays the risk.
"I don't think the lock-up on SpaceX will be as bad as everyone fears," Moon said. "It's not going to help the cause either."
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