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Software Developer Pay at $135,980 Signals Sticky Inflation
BLS projects 267,700 new software developer jobs at $135,980 median pay. High-wage growth keeps Fed hawkish, lifting yields and dollar. Next check: monthly payrolls.
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The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects software developers will add 267,700 jobs from 2024 to 2034, with median annual pay of $135,980 in 2025. For a macro trader, this is not a career forecast. It is a wage-stickiness signal from the highest-paid segment of the labor market. When a cohort earning three times the national average expands by a quarter-million positions, aggregate wage growth stays elevated. That changes the transmission path from labor data to Fed policy, and from policy to every major asset class.
Wage Stickiness from the Tech Sector
The simple read is that software developers remain in demand even as artificial intelligence tools proliferate. The better market read is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is forecasting a decade-long expansion in a sector where median pay already exceeds the national average by a factor of three. When a high-wage cohort adds a quarter-million jobs, it lifts the average hourly earnings component of the employment report. The Fed has repeatedly said it needs to see sustained softening in wage inflation before it can cut rates. This projection suggests that softening is not coming from tech.
Transmission to Yields and the Dollar
A sticky wage outlook forces the Fed to keep the policy rate higher for longer. That reprices the front end of the Treasury curve first. The 2-year yield rises as rate-cut expectations get pushed out. The 10-year yield follows, with an added term premium from fiscal deficit concerns. Higher yields attract foreign capital, which strengthens the dollar against currencies in economies with looser labor markets. A stronger dollar then tightens financial conditions globally, compressing emerging-market risk appetite and commodity prices.