SkyBridge's Scaramucci says low retail interest historically preceded Bitcoin rallies. He points to subdued search volume and exchange flows, expects a move starting late 2026.
Alpha Score of 73 reflects strong overall profile with strong momentum, strong value, strong quality, moderate sentiment.
SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci told CNBC that the current lack of interest in Bitcoin is a bullish signal. He expects a sharp rally to begin in late 2026.
Scaramucci pointed to a pattern he said repeats across asset cycles: when retail investors stop talking about an asset, the price floor tends to form. "When nobody wants to talk about it, that's historically been the time to buy," he said. He contrasted the quiet sentiment with the frenzy of late 2021, when Bitcoin hit its $69,000 peak.
The signal is not new. Bitcoin has rallied from similar sentiment troughs in 2015 and 2018, each time before a halving cycle. Scaramucci argued that the current phase looks like the bottom of the post-2022 bear market, extended. "We need a catalyst," he said. "That catalyst is time."
Scaramucci's firm launched a Bitcoin fund in 2021 and has since expanded into spot ETFs after the SEC approved them in January 2024. He remains one of the more vocal Bitcoin bulls on Wall Street, yet his timeline pushes the expected move years beyond the typical four-year cycle. For more on the current setup, see our Bitcoin (BTC) profile.
Bitcoin traded near $63,000 at the time of his interview, down from its March 2024 highs but up sharply from the $16,000 lows of 2022. Volume across exchanges has failed to return to the levels seen during the ETF launch. Google Trends data for "Bitcoin" and "crypto" sit near multiyear lows, which Scaramucci cited as confirmation of low retail interest.
The late-2026 call puts Scaramucci well past the next halving, due in spring 2028. That suggests he expects the next price peak to occur before the halving event, as happened in 2021 when Bitcoin rallied ahead of the May 2020 halving. "The cycle is elongating," he said. "Institutions are slower. That changes the rhythm."
Critics note that Scaramucci's past predictions have been overly optimistic. He called for $100,000 Bitcoin in 2021, a level that proved too high. SkyBridge's own fund performance was hurt by the 2022 crash. Still, the low-interest signal itself has some historical support. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, a widely tracked sentiment measure, has spent more time in "extreme fear" than "extreme greed" since late 2023, a condition that preceded the 2023 rally from $25,000 to $44,000.
What would confirm Scaramucci's thesis? A continued decline in trading volumes and search interest, combined with price stability above current support. What would break it? A sudden spike in retail interest without a price move, or a breakdown below the $50,000 technical level, he said.
For now, Bitcoin's price remains rangebound. Scaramucci's call is a bet that time, not news, will drive the next leg.
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