
The rupee rose 0.83% for the week, its best since April, driven by RBI measures, bond inflows, and lower oil. Analysts see bias shifting toward 93.50.
The rupee ended Friday little changed at 94.32 per dollar. It climbed to 94.21 early in the session on unwinding of long dollar positions. It gave back those gains later; the dollar strengthened and index-rebalancing outflows hit the currency. For the week, the rupee rose 0.83%, its best performance since the week ended April 3. That marks the fourth weekly gain in five weeks.
The move was driven by a combination of factors. The Reserve Bank of India announced dollar-attracting measures two weeks ago, including absorbing hedging costs to attract foreign currency deposits and a concessional FX facility to support external borrowing. Those steps, along with strong foreign inflows into Indian government securities and a slide in oil prices, supported the rupee.
The de-escalation of Middle East concerns also helped. Brent crude had fallen sharply in recent weeks, reducing India's import bill. Oil prices stayed low through most of the week.
The one-way move faced a test on Friday. The dollar index rose to a one-year high after the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, revived expectations of further rate increases. Brent crude edged up after U.S. Vice President JD Vance withdrew from a planned meeting with Iranian negotiators, halting talks on implementing the 14-point agreement.
The bias shift holds if oil stays low and bond inflows continue. A sustained break above 94.50 on the dollar index, or a spike in crude above $75, would weaken the case.
Clifford Lau, a portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair Investment Management, said the RBI's measures appear "most effective in the near term to lend support to the rupee."
Dhaval Shah, founder and managing director of De-Risk Forex Consultancy, said the RBI measures and favorable oil kept the rupee positive despite dollar strength. "This suggests the bias for rupee has changed and we continue with our previous forecast of 93.50," he said.
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