Polymarket Trader Banks $4.7M on Spain Upset in 90 Minutes

A Polymarket trader using the handle 'fishalive' turned roughly $428,000 into more than $4.7 million in 90 minutes by betting against Spain in its World Cup match against Cabo Verde, data from Arkham Intelligence shows.

The trade targeted the 'No' outcome on Spain winning the June 15 fixture. Prediction markets had priced Spain as a heavy favorite, with shares in a Spanish victory trading around $0.91 before kickoff according to Polymarket's order book. 'fishalive' instead bought shares in the opposite outcome at roughly $0.09 each, wagering that Spain would fail to win.

Spain did not win. The match ended in a scoreless draw, settling the contract at $1 per share. The position delivered a profit of more than $4.7 million within hours.

Separate Arkham data showed the same trader profited from a handicap market on the match. 'fishalive' backed Cabo Verde to cover a +2.5-goal spread, a wager that also paid out after the draw. Combined, the two bets generated nearly $9 million in total profits.

The result ranks among the largest single-event gains recorded on Polymarket during the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Spain entered the match as one of the tournament's strongest favorites, and the upset wiped out positions from traders who had backed the European side.

The draw also produced losses for other prediction markets and sportsbooks that had Spain as a heavy favorite. The single-bet profit of $4.7 million places the trade among the top winning wagers in Polymarket's history for a single event, the data shows.