Polymarket odds on CLARITY Act collapse to 16% from 82%

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, along with Senators Cynthia Lummis and Thom Tillis, had publicly flagged concerns about the bill's path heading into the break, the aides said. Some negotiators have floated a lame-duck session push after the November elections, people familiar with the talks said. A crowded legislative calendar complicates that effort.

The CLARITY Act would assign jurisdiction over digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC. Without it, crypto firms face a patchwork of enforcement actions and agency guidance, industry groups have said. The European Union's MiCA framework, already in effect, offers a clearer rulebook for crypto companies operating in Europe. A similar delay in the Senate has already drawn warnings from Florida Senator Joe Gruters. Read more on the earlier odds drop and the Senate delay.

Polymarket odds represent aggregated sentiment from speculators. The drop from 82% to 16% captures a real shift: the legislative window is closing, and the people putting money on the outcome have noticed. At 16% odds, contrarian bettors might see value if they believe a surprise Senate deal could materialize after recess. The Senate returns from recess Sept. 8. No floor vote has been scheduled for the CLARITY Act.