New home sales across Ontario jumped 130% in Q2, a gain of 4,765 units the industry says is tied to the enhanced HST rebate that began April 1.
New home sales across Ontario more than doubled in the second quarter from a year ago, a jump the building industry pins squarely on the enhanced HST rebate that took effect this spring.
A total of 8,410 new homes sold across the province in the three months ending June 30, according to data collected by the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD), the Ontario Home Builders Association and Altus Group. That is up 130% from 3,645 in the same period of 2024.
The industry group called the additional 4,765 year-over-year sales "incremental" and "directly attributable" to the HST program. The rebate removes the federal and provincial portions of the HST on eligible new homes priced up to $1 million, giving buyers up to $130,000 in tax relief. It began April 1 and took full effect in late June.
"It is incredibly positive to know that 4,765 families across Ontario were able to purchase new homes as a result of the enhanced HST rebate program," Justin Sherwood, BILD's chief operating officer, said in a release.
The 4,765 figure came from multiple inputs, Sherwood said in an email: feedback from BILD members – builders and developers – who reported more foot traffic and buyer interest, plus economic modeling from Peter Norman of Norman Economic Strategies Inc.
Sherwood was asked if the group credits the entire year-over-year quarterly increase to the tax measure. "No other market condition has changed aside from the HST rebate program beginning on April 1," he said.
He added that the modeling done in February had anticipated a further decline in sales in the Greater Toronto Area, or at best flat year over year. "(From) that analysis, (along) with the feedback from developers, the assessment of Altus, and the change in buyer behaviour starting April 1, we are concluding that very nearly all the incremental is attributable to the new measure."
The second-quarter total was still well below the GTA's long-run average, which BILD pegs at roughly 10,000-12,000 new home sales per quarter during normal markets.
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