Brent crude jumps 2% after second day of US attacks; Iran says it halted all vessels through Hormuz. US military refutes closure claim. Rystad warns of sustained escalation until ceasefire evidence appears.
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Oil jumped after a second day of US military strikes on Iran, with the Islamic Republic announcing a halt to all vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose more than 2% to trade above $95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate advanced toward $93, before paring gains after the US military said the brief campaign had ended.
The US military refuted the Iranian claim that Hormuz is completely closed, saying commercial ships continue to transit the waterway. Iran's state-run Press TV reported that Tehran had struck two vessels attempting passage in the strait and that drones had targeted the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain.
President Donald Trump accused Tehran of dragging out talks on an interim peace deal and warned of more strikes if an agreement isn't signed. Iran denied direct talks with Trump, according to Iranian news organizations. Late Wednesday, Trump claimed on social media that the US military had supported the passage of “more than 200 commercial ships” through the strait, resulting in “more than 100 million barrels” of oil reaching market.
The fresh attacks follow US strikes on Tuesday in retaliation for the downing of an American helicopter off Oman. Renewed hostilities threaten to extend the near-total closure of the Strait, which has choked off crude, fuels and natural gas supplies since late February.
“The next few days will be critical in determining whether diplomacy can reassert itself or whether the conflict moves into a more sustained escalation cycle,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy. “Oil price volatility is likely to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence” for the ceasefire holding, he added.
Oil flows remain significantly below pre-war levels, though a trickle has exited the Persian Gulf under cover of darkness. Physical markets show some signs of ample supply. The disruption to Middle East shipments has driven energy prices higher, including retail US gasoline, and raised concerns about slowing economic growth.
US government data on Wednesday showed crude inventories fell by 7.2 million barrels last week, extending declines for a seventh straight week. Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, also edged lower.
For a deeper look at the Strait of Hormuz's role in global oil flows and how this supply chain is structured, AlphaScala's earlier analysis covers the infrastructure risk. The crude oil profile tracks the key price levels and fundamentals to watch.
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