
US retaliatory strikes on Iran after attacks on commercial ships threaten to undo the ceasefire that had reopened the Strait of Hormuz, lifting oil prices 2.9%.
Oil prices jumped Wednesday after the U.S. launched fresh strikes on Iran in retaliation for attacks on three commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.
West Texas Intermediate crude for August delivery rose 2.87% to $72.46 a barrel. Brent crude for September settlement gained 2.75% to $76.18 a barrel.
The U.S. military said it had begun a "series of powerful strikes" against Iran, warning Tehran would face "heavy costs" for targeting commercial shipping. The attacks on the vessels Tuesday drew a swift response from Washington. "Iran's demonstrated aggression was unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the ceasefire," Centcom said in a post to X.
The latest exchange tests a fragile truce reached last month that had reopened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping after months of disruption. The ceasefire had removed a significant risk premium from crude prices. Wednesday's move largely reversed that discount.
Signaling the administration's hardening stance, the Treasury Department withdrew a waiver Tuesday that had allowed Iran to sell its oil. "Iran will only reap benefits if they exhibit good behavior," a U.S. official told CNBC on condition of anonymity to discuss private talks. "Iran's actions in the Strait were wholly unacceptable to the United States and will be met with consequences."
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, with about a fifth of the world's petroleum passing through daily. The previous ceasefire had eased supply fears after Iran-backed Houthi attacks disrupted shipping for months. Now those fears are back.
Traders who had bet on a continued de-escalation were caught offside, according to market participants. The move higher was accompanied by a spike in options volume, suggesting a scramble for protection against further upside.
The Joint Maritime Information Center raised its threat assessment for ships transiting the waterway to "severe," warning that further hostile action by Iran was likely. Three vessels were attacked in or near the strait on Tuesday, according to the U.S.-led center.
For crude markets, the reintroduced risk premium depends on whether the ceasefire holds. If tit-for-tat strikes continue, the strait could again become a no-go zone for tankers, tightening physical supply and pushing benchmarks toward the $80 level. If both sides pull back, the premium will unwind as quickly as it arrived.
The Treasury waiver revocation removes a diplomatic off-ramp. By cutting Iran's oil revenue stream, Washington has narrowed Tehran's incentives to de-escalate. That makes the next 48 hours critical, the official suggested.
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