Oil Jumps After US Strikes in Iran Revive Strait of Hormuz Fears

This is the key tension. A supply disruption that pushes oil higher also pushes central banks toward tighter policy, which eventually damps demand. The market is pricing the first leg of that chain today. The second leg – higher rates, slower growth – is a lagged effect that will show up in forward curves and equity valuations over the coming weeks.

Sector Read-Through: Energy, Shipping, Central Banks

The obvious read-through is to energy equities and tanker shipping names. Higher spot crude benefits producers with unhedged output, the real leverage is in companies with exposure to the Strait of Hormuz transit risk. Tanker rates typically spike when war risk premiums rise, and that dynamic is live again.

For the broader commodity complex, the move reinforces the correlation between geopolitical risk and gold, which often bounces when oil spikes on supply fears. The Iran Talk Trade Unravels article from earlier this week highlighted how diplomatic headlines had been suppressing both oil and gold. Thursday's action reverses that pattern.

Central banks are the wildcard. If oil stays above $95 for a sustained period, the inflation spillover becomes a policy input. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have both cited energy prices as a risk to their inflation forecasts. A hawkish pivot would tighten financial conditions, which is a headwind for risk assets across the board.

Next Decision Point: Diplomatic Timeline

The next catalyst is the diplomatic timeline. If the strikes are a one-off and talks resume, the risk premium will fade quickly. If they escalate into a sustained campaign, the market will have to reprice a prolonged disruption scenario. Traders should watch for official statements from Iran and the U.S. over the next 48 hours. A de-escalation signal would likely trigger a sharp unwind of Thursday's gains. A retaliatory strike would push Brent toward the $100 psychological level.

For a broader look at how geopolitical shocks interact with commodity positioning, see the commodities analysis section.