Oil and NatGas Split on Iran Truce: WTI Holds $80, Brent Slides

The Iran ceasefire deal is reshaping oil markets in uneven ways. WTI crude held near $80 a barrel on the 4-hour chart after bouncing off the 50-period moving average around $85.97, while Brent crude slid to $82.41 and broke below its blue channel. The divergence tells a story about grade-specific positioning and the slow timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening.

Oil companies expect the strait to take months to clear fully, with normal flows unlikely before late 2026. That timeline keeps a floor under prices even as the deal removes the immediate blockade risk. OECD storage is at multi-year lows, and the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases have already been drawn down. Non-OPEC+ production, especially steady U.S. output, is balancing supply for now but not building a cushion.

Natural gas is in a different regime. Associated gas production from oil fields has been rising, storage inventories are above five-year averages, and LNG exports remain high. The 2H NYMEX contract traded at $3.170, with consecutive bullish candles breaking above the 50-period moving average near $3.15. The ascending blue channel and higher highs from the $3.099 swing low point to growing buyer control. The RSI sits around 52, leaving room for further upside toward Fibonacci targets in the $3.203 to $3.297 zone.

WTI: Support Holds, Resistance Active

On the 4-hour chart, WTI is trying to stabilize at the lower end of an upward-sloping blue channel near $79.24. Bullish rejection wicks at that level show buyers absorbing pressure, while downside follow-through has been muted. The RSI hovers near 48. The price volume profile flags $79 to $81 as a new level to watch. A descending resistance line remains active near $85.00. The higher lows pattern supports a short-term consolidation view, with Fibonacci confluence in its favor.

Brent: Bearish Structure Below $85.96

Brent's 4-hour chart tells a different story. After rejection from the 50-period moving average near $89.92, price fell below the blue channel with consecutive bearish candles. The RSI declined to around 45. The price volume profile shows $87 to $90 as a major supply zone. Fibonacci projections target $80.65 to $77.88 on the downside. The larger downtrend channel from $103 remains intact, and the pattern of lower highs and lower lows favors sellers as long as Brent stays below $85.96.

What to Watch

The next few weeks will test whether the WTI-Brent spread widens further. If the strait reopening stays on a slow track, Brent's discount to WTI could persist. On the gas side, the key question is whether storage injections keep pace with demand through the summer cooling season. The EIA's weekly storage report and any updates on strait clearance timelines will be the next concrete inputs for both markets.