Oil and NatGas Diverge After Iran Truce: What the Charts Show

Crude-oil fundamentals are in flux after President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran and said he will work to restore oil transit through the Strait of Hormuz starting June 15, 2026. The bottleneck, through which roughly 20% of global seaborne oil typically flows, had been shut for weeks, forcing production curtailments in the Persian Gulf and large OECD inventory draws.

Tanker movements in the region won't pick up right away. Many industry players and analysts expect it will take months to restart some field production and for tanker movements to return to normal, possibly into late 2026 or later. Given the inventory draws and the time it takes to bring a well or rig back online, the tighter side of oil supply fundamentals will likely persist for a while. Steady production growth, including U.S. shale output, is expected to be a steady factor into next year, even with a potential ceasefire and reopening of a global shipping bottleneck.

Natural-gas fundamentals look balanced to ample by comparison. U.S. output remains near record levels on associated gas from oil-directed wells. Recent injections have put U.S. inventories above five-year averages at this time of year, even as LNG exports stay robust. With moderate demand and forecasted cooling weather, inventories are likely to remain balanced to ample into the second half of 2026.

Natural Gas (2H NYMEX) – $3.051

Bearish continuation candles have been active on the descending trendline at $3.09 after a failed bounce above the 50MA near $3.15 during the session. Multiple lower highs have printed, and the price has seen rejection wicks on several occasions from $3.099. That tells you distribution activity continues and sellers are in control.

The RSI sits just near 48. Volume profile activity clusters at $3.028. The series of lower lows and lower highs points to support at $2.977 and $2.924, which are Fib extensions. Price below $3.099 remains structurally neutral or bearish within the blue channel. Sellers continue to dominate on each rally and failed higher low.

Trade idea: Sell at $3.051, targeting $2.977, with a stop-loss at $3.099.

WTI Crude Oil (4H) – $80.57

The price has been rejected near $85.97, the 50MA, with bearish candles below the blue channel's lower bound. Multiple lower highs have printed as price approaches the pivot at $79.24, which acts as support in the structure.

The RSI remains just near 46 in neutral space. Most volume profile activity sits between $85 and $87. The series of lower lows points to support at $77.50 to $75.00, a Fib confluence from the volume profile. Price below $85.97 remains structurally neutral or bearish within the blue channel from $104. Sellers are in control on every rebound. Failed wicks on the lower highs near resistance have been a recurring pattern.

Trade idea: Sell at $80.57, targeting $77.50, with a stop-loss at $82.50.

Brent Crude Oil (4H) – $83.37

The price has rejected a descent around $89.92, the 50MA, and has been bearish below the trendline near $85.96 and the blue channel's lower bound on the 4H. A series of large bearish engulfing candles and multiple lower lows from the $94.94 swing have printed. A target range between $81.79 and $80.00, a Fib extension, is now in the price's sights.

The RSI is down from 45, indicating a lack of power and strength. Price below $85.96 remains structurally bearish within the channel from $103. The range of lower highs and lower lows continues below the $85.96 level. Sellers are in control. The $89 to $92 zone was a failed value area on the volume profile.

Trade idea: Sell at $83.37, targeting $81.79, with a stop-loss at $85.00.

Arslan holds an MBA in finance and an MPhil in behavioral finance. His analysis focuses on market sentiment and whether instruments are likely overbought or oversold.