Novogratz: CLARITY Act Hinges on Two Unresolved Issues in Four-Week Window

The unresolved issues center on law enforcement concerns. White House officials have met privately with enforcement agencies to discuss the bill's provisions. Democratic senators who had previously signaled support are now waiting for a formal endorsement from those agencies before committing. Novogratz said he spent Monday shuttling between offices on both sides of the aisle to break the logjam.

A path to passage would require two things: a public endorsement from law enforcement and a bipartisan agreement on the remaining text. That combination would likely push Polymarket odds back above 60%. A weakening scenario would look like odds falling below 40% or a public statement from Democratic leadership opposing the bill. Either would signal that the four-week deadline is too short to resolve the law enforcement questions.

The bill's fate matters for crypto markets beyond the immediate legislative scorecard. Clear rules for digital assets could unlock institutional allocation that has stayed on the sidelines. The election-year dynamics add pressure – crypto has become a major election issue, and both parties want a win to show voters they can govern on emerging technology.

Novogratz said he plans to stay in Washington until the bill either moves or recess begins. "Passing this law would show Americans a divided Congress is still capable of working together," he said.