Nifty holds 24,366 as crude, Iran risk cap upside

The Nifty 50 settled at 24,366 Friday, down 29.85 points or 0.12%, its fourth consecutive losing session. The BSE Sensex fell 70.71 points to close at 78,009. Both indices ended the week 0.83% lower.

Crude oil stayed the dominant headwind. Brent hovered near $87 a barrel, WTI traded around $82. Fresh attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, stalled Iran-Oman negotiations, and the U.S. signalling an indefinite naval blockade of Iran kept supply disruption fears alive. The IEA cut its global oil demand outlook this week, citing prolonged conflict and elevated prices already weighing on consumption.

"Investor sentiment remained subdued as Brent crude hovered around the $87 per barrel mark amid concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies," Mishra said.

Market breadth on the BSE deteriorated. The advance-decline ratio slipped to 0.84, and 331 of Nifty 500 stocks ended in the red. The Nifty Midcap 100 shed 0.53%, a day after hitting an all-time high of 64,125. The Nifty Smallcap 100 fell 0.69%, breaking below a six-day consolidation range.

Sectoral action was narrow. Nifty Media and Consumer Durables were the lone gainers. Pharma, Metals, Auto, and Capital Markets took the heaviest selling pressure. Among Nifty 50 stocks, Apollo Hospitals, Bharti Airtel, and Adani Enterprises led gains. Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Jio Financial Services, and ONGC were the biggest drags.

The Indian rupee stayed under pressure, trading in the ₹95.40-95.45 range against the dollar before closing near ₹95.43. Losses were contained as the market factored in the possibility of RBI intervention.

Asian markets delivered a mixed picture. South Korea's Kospi extended its rally with a gain of 2.41%. Japan's Nikkei 225 advanced 0.59%. Several China-linked and oil-sensitive markets underperformed. European markets also traded mixed, balancing optimism from Wall Street's strong finish against renewed West Asia concerns.

On the domestic macro front, India's trade deficit widened to $32 billion in July, though strong exports in electronics, engineering, and chemicals are expected to keep the external balance manageable. The monsoon deficit narrowed sharply to 12% of the Long Period Average as of August 12, down from 38.6% in June, supporting kharif sowing and easing food inflation pressure. FY27 GDP growth is pegged at 6.8–7.0%, with CPI inflation estimated at 5.1%.

"Indian equities are likely to remain range-bound next week as global cues and macro developments assume greater importance," said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. He added that crude, West Asia developments, and global sentiment will remain the primary near-term drivers.

Hariselvan Radhakrishnan, Founder and CEO of HST Wealth, struck a cautiously constructive note, saying the Nifty's ability to defend the 24,325 support zone for a second consecutive session indicated that "buying interest continues to emerge at lower levels."

Investors will track the U.S. Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes, U.S. crude inventory data, India's infrastructure output numbers, and August flash PMI readings through the week.