Netherlands to win World Cup, says mathematician who called last three

A mathematician who called the last three World Cup winners has picked the Netherlands to lift the trophy in 2026. Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum, built a model that nailed Germany in 2014, France in 2018, and Argentina in 2022. His 2026 simulation sends the Dutch past Spain and then Portugal, with Portugal reaching the final by knocking out England.

Klement never set out to be a World Cup oracle. He studied mathematics and physics at ETH Zurich, then moved into finance. The model started as an exercise to prove that forecasting a tournament winner from economic data was nearly impossible – a jab at what he called the hubris of economists who think they can predict things they have no grasp of. Then it got its first call right.

"I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil," he told Der Spiegel, recalling the conventional wisdom that no European side had ever won a World Cup staged in South America. Germany did exactly that in 2014.

The model leans on GDP per capita (which shapes sports infrastructure), population size, how central football is to the society, the national team's FIFA ranking, and a heavy dose of chance, Klement said. It treats the whole thing like a lottery. He compared it to a coin that can land heads four times in a row without guaranteeing the next toss.

Bookmakers currently favor France, Spain, and England. France moved clear at the top of the market after Kylian Mbappé's two goals against Senegal made him the nation's all-time leading scorer. The Netherlands sit near the long-shot end of the odds board.

The opening round has already scrambled Klement's bracket. Two of his four projected semifinalists stumbled: Spain drew with Cape Verde, Portugal drew with DR Congo. England, whom his model has losing in the semis, looked sharp in a 4-2 win over Croatia. Defending champion Argentina opened with a Lionel Messi hat-trick.

Klement insists nobody should read anything into it. "It's completely irrational," he said, warning that anyone who bets on his pick is "beyond help."

The Netherlands have reached three World Cup finals – 1974, 1978, 2010 – and lost all three, the longest wait for a first title among the traditional powers. Their 2026 campaign began June 14 with a 2-2 draw against Japan in Dallas. They face Sweden and Tunisia next in Group F.

Whether Klement's streak survives a fourth tournament will be decided July 19, when the final kicks off at MetLife Stadium near New York.