Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
OCBC analysts flag choppy USD/JPY trade right at the intervention line, where widening yield differentials collide with the threat of official yen-buying. The next U.S. inflation print could break the stalemate.
Headline CPI projected at 3.7% y/y as Iran-driven energy spike hits, yet core dips to 2.7%, the dollar's next move hinges on whether markets trust the disinflation trend.
April existing home sales came in at 4.02 million, just below the 4.05M consensus, as lower mortgage rates improved affordability but tight inventory kept turnover subdued. The dollar’s path hinges on whether the supply-driven miss keeps rate cuts on the table.
115K NFP beat, wage growth 3.6% y/y vs 3.8% fcast. Fed tightening odds jump to 21%, dollar slides on Iran deadlock and equity risk-on. Next: Trump-Xi summit pressure.
UK 10-year gilt yields climb to 5.002% amid Labour leadership questions while Iran stalemate keeps crude above $103. Sterling holds steady for now, but the transmission path through fiscal credibility and rate expectations is shifting.
Resistance at 96.90 caps upside while traders await updates on a US-Iran deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz flows. Break below 84.20 would signal deeper selling.
WTI crude hit $100, EUR/USD fell to 1.1767, USD/JPY rose to 157.10. Gold down 0.9%, silver up 1.4% testing 100-day MA. Next: Trump's Beijing visit.
FBI Director Patel says AI now reviews tips and tracks threats; the bureau's modernization comes as TRM data shows $158B in illicit crypto flows for 2025, raising the stakes for exchange compliance.
CertiK data shows criminals bypassing blockchain security to target holders directly, shifting risk from code to physical safety. The $100M+ in losses since January signals a threat exchanges can't patch.
The dollar firmed after the US rejected Iran’s counter-proposal, pushing EUR/USD toward $1.1745 before a 2.1 bln euro option expiry at $1.1750 anchored spot. US 10-year yields rose 3 bp to 4.39% ahead of Tuesday’s CPI.
EUR/USD trades toward 1.1850 resistance while Brent crude defends 96.50 support, as Iran proposal headlines override an expected inflation uptick.
Oil-driven import costs continue to pressure the rupee, and upcoming domestic inflation data will dictate whether the RBI can stay on hold or must respond to price pressures.
Oil-driven rupee slide splits the read: HDFC Bank (38) faces bond headwinds, Infosys (57) gets a translation boost. Next catalyst: RBI stance, Iran.
A probe into Zondacrypto and $97M in claimed losses revives Poland's stalled crypto bill with harsher penalties, leaving MiCA compliance still behind.
Local election losses for Labour raise questions about policy continuity and the BoE's rate path, with the next inflation print now a key trigger for GBP/USD.
WTI slipped to $97.62 and Brent to $103.88 as the conditional truce reduced Strait of Hormuz risk, but technical breakdowns point to $93.97 and $100.43 targets. Natural gas at $2.795 faces supply overhang and a bearish channel.
Private-sector members of Japan’s key economic panel warned that smaller firms face funding strains from Middle East turmoil, complicating the BOJ’s rate normalization path.
India's PM Modi urges citizens to conserve foreign exchange as soaring oil prices strain the rupee and deplete FX reserves, prompting speculation about import curbs or NRI bond schemes.
Megan Greene warns the Iran energy shock has shifted UK inflation risks entirely to the upside, complicating the BoE's rate path and sterling's direction.
The failed US-Iran peace deal sent Brent and WTI crude up more than 5%, boosting the dollar as traders reassess inflation risks ahead of Tuesday's US CPI report.
Even without a trade deal, the real FX mover is whether Trump can secure Xi’s help on Iran. That outcome would shape oil, dollar flows, and USD/CNH through the week.
WTI’s two-week chart shows rejection below $120 and defense at $76, with a hold above $97. US-Iran talks remain misaligned, keeping supply risk elevated and supporting CAD, NOK against energy importers.
Price rejections at $120 and $76 frame a bullish bias, but US-Iran diplomatic misalignment keeps supply risk elevated. Next catalyst: talks progress or escalation.
Brent crude surges 6% after Trump rejects Iran's counterproposal, reversing EUR/USD gains and pushing German 10Y yields back toward 3%. US CPI and Trump-Xi summit loom as next catalysts.
US crude reclaimed $100 while the Kospi surged 4.5% to a record and the Nasdaq added 2.35%, as AI investor appetite shrugged off Iran supply risks. The real transmission is through yields and the dollar ahead of Wednesday’s US CPI.
Brent crude surged above $105 after Iran rejected the US proposal, lifting the dollar. The Trump-Xi summit on May 13-15 now becomes the next macro catalyst.
The Indian rupee’s trade-weighted depreciation reaches up to 25% over 12 months, pressuring import costs while benefiting IT exporters. Next RBI policy signal now critical.
China's $88bn monthly surplus, three times the pre-pandemic norm, is funding infrastructure and green tech investment. The real payoff is a rising role for the renminbi.
Outgoing VP Luis de Guindos told the FT that the ECB should be cautious about raising rates next month, citing weakening growth, a signal that could cap euro gains.
Reserve Bank of India likely sold dollars Monday as a renewed surge in crude prices risks widening the current account deficit and stoking inflation, three traders said. Next catalyst: the upcoming trade data.