Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc is rising, with the Swiss National Bank's dovish stance limiting upside, MUFG says. Sight deposit data this week is the next intervention signal.
Iran signals readiness to dilute highly enriched uranium to 3.7% and 20%, but Washington's refusal to transfer stockpiles to Russia keeps a deal distant, sustaining oil risk premium and dollar support.
A weak three-year note sale tailed to 3.965% and forced dealers to take a larger share, widening front-end rate differentials that support the dollar ahead of the ten-year auction.
The Australian dollar advanced as markets braced for US inflation data, with an added tailwind from Trump's rejection of an Iran nuclear pact, lifting oil and commodity currencies.
A claim of naval destruction and an intent to bring down crude prices reset the geopolitical risk premium across oil and petrocurrencies. The upcoming generals' meeting provides the next credibility test.
The French bank sees narrowing rate differentials and capital flow rotation driving a structural dollar decline over months, with the next catalyst being the Fed’s dot plot.
MUFG flags that a more cautious Riksbank is eroding the krona's yield support, with the next policy meeting now the key decision point for the currency.
Crude climbed $2.12 to $97.50 after President Trump floated reviving the Iran-focused Project Freedom and a federal gas tax pause. Next: formal announcement or diplomatic breakthrough.
OCBC analysts flag choppy USD/JPY trade right at the intervention line, where widening yield differentials collide with the threat of official yen-buying. The next U.S. inflation print could break the stalemate.
Headline CPI projected at 3.7% y/y as Iran-driven energy spike hits, yet core dips to 2.7%, the dollar's next move hinges on whether markets trust the disinflation trend.
April existing home sales came in at 4.02 million, just below the 4.05M consensus, as lower mortgage rates improved affordability but tight inventory kept turnover subdued. The dollar’s path hinges on whether the supply-driven miss keeps rate cuts on the table.
115K NFP beat, wage growth 3.6% y/y vs 3.8% fcast. Fed tightening odds jump to 21%, dollar slides on Iran deadlock and equity risk-on. Next: Trump-Xi summit pressure.
UK 10-year gilt yields climb to 5.002% amid Labour leadership questions while Iran stalemate keeps crude above $103. Sterling holds steady for now, but the transmission path through fiscal credibility and rate expectations is shifting.
Resistance at 96.90 caps upside while traders await updates on a US-Iran deal that could reopen Strait of Hormuz flows. Break below 84.20 would signal deeper selling.
WTI crude hit $100, EUR/USD fell to 1.1767, USD/JPY rose to 157.10. Gold down 0.9%, silver up 1.4% testing 100-day MA. Next: Trump's Beijing visit.
FBI Director Patel says AI now reviews tips and tracks threats; the bureau's modernization comes as TRM data shows $158B in illicit crypto flows for 2025, raising the stakes for exchange compliance.
CertiK data shows criminals bypassing blockchain security to target holders directly, shifting risk from code to physical safety. The $100M+ in losses since January signals a threat exchanges can't patch.
The dollar firmed after the US rejected Iran’s counter-proposal, pushing EUR/USD toward $1.1745 before a 2.1 bln euro option expiry at $1.1750 anchored spot. US 10-year yields rose 3 bp to 4.39% ahead of Tuesday’s CPI.
EUR/USD trades toward 1.1850 resistance while Brent crude defends 96.50 support, as Iran proposal headlines override an expected inflation uptick.
Oil-driven import costs continue to pressure the rupee, and upcoming domestic inflation data will dictate whether the RBI can stay on hold or must respond to price pressures.
Oil-driven rupee slide splits the read: HDFC Bank (38) faces bond headwinds, Infosys (57) gets a translation boost. Next catalyst: RBI stance, Iran.
A probe into Zondacrypto and $97M in claimed losses revives Poland's stalled crypto bill with harsher penalties, leaving MiCA compliance still behind.
Local election losses for Labour raise questions about policy continuity and the BoE's rate path, with the next inflation print now a key trigger for GBP/USD.
WTI slipped to $97.62 and Brent to $103.88 as the conditional truce reduced Strait of Hormuz risk, but technical breakdowns point to $93.97 and $100.43 targets. Natural gas at $2.795 faces supply overhang and a bearish channel.
Private-sector members of Japan’s key economic panel warned that smaller firms face funding strains from Middle East turmoil, complicating the BOJ’s rate normalization path.
India's PM Modi urges citizens to conserve foreign exchange as soaring oil prices strain the rupee and deplete FX reserves, prompting speculation about import curbs or NRI bond schemes.
Megan Greene warns the Iran energy shock has shifted UK inflation risks entirely to the upside, complicating the BoE's rate path and sterling's direction.
The failed US-Iran peace deal sent Brent and WTI crude up more than 5%, boosting the dollar as traders reassess inflation risks ahead of Tuesday's US CPI report.
Even without a trade deal, the real FX mover is whether Trump can secure Xi’s help on Iran. That outcome would shape oil, dollar flows, and USD/CNH through the week.
WTI’s two-week chart shows rejection below $120 and defense at $76, with a hold above $97. US-Iran talks remain misaligned, keeping supply risk elevated and supporting CAD, NOK against energy importers.