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Iran fired missiles, drones and small boats at three US Navy destroyers; the US struck back at launch sites. The exchange forces a repricing of war risk and oil supply disruption into FX markets.
With crude oil coiling into a symmetrical triangle apex near June 4, a breakout above $105.99 or below $90.05 will transmit through inflation bets, yields, and the dollar.
The US Dollar Index rose 0.17% to 98.193 as hawkish Fed comments and Iran deal uncertainty reversed a record-breaking equity rally. Next catalyst: US CPI.
After a successful test of the 20-day moving average at $2.68, the wedge breakout targets the 50-day MA near $2.86; a close above $2.88 would confirm the next leg higher.
The Turnberry Agreement's 15% tariff ceiling is now in limbo after a Supreme Court ruling, leaving EUR/USD exposed to a July 4 compliance deadline.
The split decision signals internal discord as the central bank balances sticky inflation against a slowing economy, leaving the peso's path dependent on upcoming data.
EIA storage build of 63 Bcf (vs 74 Bcf forecast) and WTI's bounce off its 50-day moving average at $93.80 show commodity markets pricing an Iran ceasefire that holds, but incremental risk buying and next week's Islamabad talks will decide the dollar's and CAD's next legs.
The denial eases immediate supply fears, but the Strait remains a flashpoint. Oil-linked currencies like CAD and NOK face a sentiment test.
The comment downplays a key risk that could force the Fed to delay rate cuts, keeping the dollar's recent rally in check. Next focus: CPI data for confirmation.
ECB's Schnabel warned that the Iran conflict is raising eurozone inflation risks via oil and supply snags, hinting at possible rate hikes. The shift could reprice EUR/USD rate differentials.
With average hourly earnings seen at 0.3% m/m and unemployment at 4.3%, the transmission to rate expectations and the dollar hinges on the wage print more than the headline payrolls miss.
US intelligence sees Iran withstanding the Hormuz blockade for 90-120 days, keeping oil supply risk elevated and shifting the CAD and dollar outlook.
A 63 Bcf storage build missed estimates but June natural gas still declined as LNG exports hit a multi-month low. The $2.749 pivot is the line for the next move.
WTI crude's 19% drop from April highs accelerates as Polymarket odds of a US-Iran deal by June 30 hit 55%. The Strait of Hormuz reopening would slash energy costs, pressuring the Canadian dollar and shifting Fed rate expectations.
Crude oil testing the 50-day EMA as US-Iran peace hopes build. A break below $85 could send oil to $75, reshaping rate expectations and boosting the dollar against commodity currencies.
Crude oil slid as traders priced in a potential US-Iran deal that could reopen Hormuz flows. The market now tests the $84.20–$85.20 support zone, with resistance at $96.90. A breakdown below support would signal further downside risk.
March construction spending rose 0.6% vs. 0.2% est., with private residential jumping 1.7%. The beat resets near-term USD rate expectations.
PBOC set yuan fix at 6.8487, lowest since March 2023, as onshore unit gains 2.6% YTD. Trump-Xi summit next week adds trade, rare earth, and Strait of Hormuz pressure.
S&P 500 futures hit a record high as oil extends its decline on renewed Iran deal hopes. The energy tailwind lifts equities, but the rally's durability depends on deal progress.
Initial claims rose to 200k, but the four-week average fell to 203,250, signaling contained layoffs. The data keeps the Fed on hold and the dollar supported.
US initial jobless claims fell to 200K vs 205K estimate, signaling labor market resilience that pushes back Fed rate-cut timing. Tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report expected at 65K could jolt FX markets.
Sterling added to Wednesday's 0.4% gain as US-Iran talks raised expectations of a Strait of Hormuz reopening, weakening the dollar. UK local elections could pressure PM Starmer, with bond vigilantes watching for fiscal risk.
Brent pierced $100 intraday Wednesday but didn't close below; today's test targets the 61.8% Fibo at $97.25 before the daily cloud base at $91.36.
EUR/USD climbs to 1.1765 and AUD/USD to 0.7255 as crude extends losses; 10-year yields ease 2 bps to 4.33% ahead of the next Iran deal catalyst.
Sterling edged higher as Iran peace hopes dragged oil lower, easing inflation fears and boosting risk appetite, with UK local election results next to move the needle.
A potential US-Iran deal is pushing oil lower for a third day, widening rate differentials and dragging EUR/USD down. The next concrete marker is German Ifo data.
Sterling tests mid-February highs near 1.3600, but BoE rate expectations have dropped from three hikes to two, and H4 MACD divergence warns of a pullback toward 1.3344.
The Canadian dollar is expected to weaken in the near term but could resume its uptrend if Middle East and tariff uncertainties ease, a Reuters poll shows. The next Bank of Canada decision and oil price moves will test that view.
Falling crude prices shrink India’s import bill, easing pressure on the rupee, while offshore NDF dollar selling accelerates. The next test comes from the RBI’s policy stance and US inflation data.
WTI crude has broken below the $96 support level as geopolitical risk fades. Watch the $91.92 Fibonacci level for the next potential move in energy markets.