Brent Oil Cracks $100 as Iran Deal Hopes Surge, $97 Next

The $100.67 level–the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $86.08 to $115.26 upleg–had acted as support before Wednesday’s sell-off. Combined with the round-number $100, this zone was always going to be a battleground. The intraday breach through both on Wednesday and the subsequent failure to reclaim them on a closing basis turned that support into resistance. Now, any bounces should stall near the $100.00-$100.94 area (the cloud top), and a sustained move below $100 would shift the focus to the next strong cluster: the 61.8% retracement at $97.25, which aligns closely with Wednesday’s spike low of $96.76. A break there would open a path toward the base of the daily Ichimoku cloud at $91.36–a level not visited since the initial war rally.

The bearish signal only triggers with a daily close below $97. Intraday violations of that zone are not enough; the market needs to prove it can reject bounces back above the broken 50% retracement. If sellers manage a daily finish under $97, the cloud base becomes the next downside objective, with potential overshoot toward the $92.97-$93.93 support pocket.

The Fed-Rate Crosscurrent and Forex Spillover

Oil’s slide is also feeding into rate-sensitive pairs. Falling energy prices dampen inflation expectations, which in turn reduces the pressure on central banks to hike aggressively. That dynamic weakens the dollar against currencies where rate differentials shrink, as we detailed in our analysis of why a US-Iran deal sinks oil and EUR/USD through rate channels. If Brent holds below $100 through the weekly close, the FX market will likely begin pricing a softer CPI trajectory, giving euro and sterling a renewed bid. Conversely, a swift return above $100.94 would neutralize the bearish setup and keep the rate-hike premium intact.

For now, the immediate catalyst is the reaction at $97 and any fresh headline from the Vienna talks. A daily close below $97 would complete a bearish continuation pattern and shift the range down to $91.36-$97. An abortive bounce that fails at $100 would offer a second selling opportunity with risk defined by that level.