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ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane says lower oil prices will take time to feed through to inflation, keeping the central bank flexible on rate moves. Oil futures for 2027-28 remain above pre-war levels.
French CPI fell to 1.8% in June from 2.3%, below the 2.1% consensus, driven by a sharp drop in energy costs. Services and food also eased. The data gives the ECB room to hold in July.
Euro and sterling consolidate near key levels as traders await US CPI and UK GDP. EUR/USD trapped between 1.1340 and 1.1430, GBP/USD tests 1.3270 resistance.
German import prices rose 0.7% m/m in May, beating expectations, with the annual rate hitting 6.8% – the highest since Dec 2022. Energy costs surged 37.2% y/y, giving the ECB hawks fresh reason to delay rate cuts.
More central banks plan to cut dollar holdings than increase them for the first time, an OMFIF survey found. The shift could weaken the greenback and boost gold over time.
USD/JPY breached 162 for the first time since 1986, yen at 40-year low, as Japan's warnings failed. China PMIs beat, PBOC added liquidity, RBA stayed hawkish.
RBA minutes show board held cash rate at 4.35% to assess cumulative tightening and oil disruptions. Inflation still above target, underlying CPI expected to rise. Rate hike remains possible.
China's manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, driven by export orders. That support may fade after oil retreats and domestic demand remains weak. Implications for the yuan.
China's factory PMI beat at 50.3, driven by AI exports up 60% YoY, but retail fell and tariff front-loading fades, capping yuan support. The narrow beat leaves the yuan vulnerable.
Yen breaches 161 for first time since 1986 as carry trade pressures mount. Tokyo spent ¥9.8 trillion on April-May intervention. Next test: July 11 U.S. CPI.
China's June manufacturing PMI hit 50.3, beating estimates, while services surprised at 50.2. The data supports the stabilization narrative but leaves the PBJ's rate path unchanged.
Natural Gas reversed from the 3.34 resistance zone, forming a bearish Evening Star pattern. The clear daily downtrend points to a retest of the 3.055 support level from March.
Natural gas reversed from the 3.34 resistance zone, forming a daily Evening Star pattern. A break below 3.055 support would confirm the downtrend resumption and open the next leg lower.
Japan warned it would act as the yen slid past $161 for the first time since 1986. A sharp spike above 162 could bring a response, dealers said.
Capri Global Capital plans its first international bond issuance of $300-500M. The NBFC appointed five banks for investor roadshows. Swap costs will determine net rupee funding savings.
Japan raises single-entry visa fees to 15,000 yen from 3,000 yen starting July 1, the first increase since 1978, as the weak yen and record tourism strain costs.
Japan's industrial output rose 0.5% in May, missing the 1.1% consensus. The miss complicates BoJ rate hike timing and keeps USD/JPY near 161.
UK shop price inflation held at 1.2% in June, below forecasts, as food costs eased. Lloyds business confidence fell for third month, with manufacturing confidence sliding 10 points.
Natural gas tested $3.17 support after third rejection at $3.38-$3.40. Rising 50-day MA near $3.02 provides a lower stabilisation floor. Trendline holds or breaks?
ECB President Christine Lagarde said the euro zone's improved resilience gives the central bank flexibility to raise rates without triggering financial stress, supporting the euro.
Shares of the AI server maker hit a session low of $27.82 after authorities raided its Taiwan offices over alleged chip smuggling to China. The stock now sits below key moving averages.
Goldman Sachs says GBP/USD can extend gains as UK political risk premium fades. The pair near 1.3240 leaves room for further sterling strength. Upcoming data will test.
Light sweet crude sits at $70, the pre-war level. Supply chain disruptions linger and the market lacks a fresh catalyst. Weekly inventory data is the next signal for a summer range.
Natural gas tested $3.50 on a U.S. heat wave and reversed. Storage surpluses held. The range favors shorting overextended rallies, Chris said.
Crude erased all war gains, closing near $68. The 67-68 zone has triggered rebounds twice in four months. A close above $70.50 would confirm a bounce toward $79.20. Inventory data Wednesday.
Fed, ECB, BoJ and RBA data week begins with quiet markets. NFP, ISM, eurozone CPI and RBA minutes will test rate expectations and drive dollar, yield and risk moves through Thursday.
RBI open-market operations and swaps added over ₹1.5 trillion to banking system, cutting CD yields 35 bps since mid-June and widening margins for wholesale-funded lenders.
Oil edges up 1% as Iran truce leaves Strait risk open. Tech futures bounce 1.3% ahead of holiday week. Gold slips 1.3% to $4,035. Fed Chair Warsh and payrolls loom.
The rupee erased an early gain to close at 94.54 after renewed US-Iran hostilities dented risk appetite and reversed positive flows from oil and foreign inflows.
The dollar eased from a one-year high on month-end profit-taking but the pullback stayed shallow. Focus shifts to May payrolls. Technical support at 100.60 could define the next leg higher.