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WTI crude fell 5% after Trump canceled strikes on Iran, raising hopes of a deal. The move hit CAD and NOK while lifting the dollar. Natural gas also slid on a larger-than-expected storage build.
The Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds to close the week's coupon auctions. The 10-year drew strong foreign demand. The 30-year result will test whether that appetite extends to the long end.
ECB sources say a July hold is the base case if energy prices stay flat. The pause would cap euro upside and widen the dollar's rate advantage against a still-hiking Fed.
The ECB joins the RBA, Norges Bank and BOJ in raising rates. For forex traders, the dollar's path now depends on whether the Fed keeps pace or slows down.
ECB delivered a 25bp hike, raised inflation forecasts, and cut growth projections. Iran escalation drove dollar bids. EUR/USD held above 1.1499 with resistance at 1.1685.
US PPI hit 6.5% yoy in May, the fastest since 2022, driven by a 23.4% gasoline surge. Core prices also jumped, signaling broader inflation pass-through and raising July rate-hike odds.
The ECB raised its key rate Thursday, aiming to curb inflation before the Iran conflict drives energy costs higher across the euro zone. The euro strengthened as rate differentials widened.
Canada building permits fell 7.6% in April, far worse than the 3.5% decline economists expected. The miss adds to a run of soft domestic data that could reinforce the case for Bank of Canada rate cuts.
ECB raised rates by 25bps to 2.25% and lifted inflation forecasts, citing Middle East energy costs. Core inflation projections rose, indicating broader pass-through.
Sterling held near recent highs vs euro as ECB decision looms. The euro's direction depends on Lagarde's tone at 12:45 GMT. A hawkish hold tests 0.8420 resistance; a dovish tilt targets 0.8350. UK yields offer support; BOE next week.
France pushes G7 on global imbalances, citing China exports and U.S. deficit. The May finance ministers' meeting is the next test for currency markets.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until further notice. Ship traffic is below 10 vessels daily. Oil tested $97.50. Insurers have pulled coverage.
Ueda will be in Washington as the BOJ announces its rate decision Friday. Without him at the press conference, markets have to parse Deputy Governor Uchida's tone on the next hike.
Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran remain on track despite Gulf military exchanges, CNN reports. Oil stays elevated but restrained as markets price the Fed tightening into a supply shock.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate traded sideways on Wednesday as investors weighed the Bank of Canada's latest policy decision against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and subdued
WTI crude tests $97.50 resistance as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. A break above opens $105; rejection targets $80. Brent holds above $90 support.
Asian equity futures bounce after US airstrikes on Iran are declared complete, but the relief is shallow. WTI crude jumps 3.5% to $91.84, gold collapses 4.4%, and the Dow loses 1.9%. The ECB meets today with a 25bp hike fully priced. USD/JPY hovers near the 160.73 intervention line.
Brent crude's double bottom pattern near $90 challenges markets' de-escalation assumptions. A break above $94.89 could signal longer supply disruption with inflation and policy implications.
ECB poised to raise rates Thursday to head off inflation from Iran conflict energy costs. Lagarde's tone will set direction for euro, bonds and equities.
The ECB's quarter-point hike is priced in. The euro's next move depends on Lagarde's signals on September and the energy-driven inflation outlook,
The Treasury auctions $39B in 10-year notes at 1 p.m. ET. The bid-to-cover and tail will signal demand, influencing yields, the dollar, and equity valuations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said there are grounds for a rate cut at next week's meeting, praising Nabiullina's policy as she recovers from illness.
The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% and signaled it will look through energy-driven inflation as long as pass-through remains limited. The next CPI print will test that stance.
Headline inflation hit a three-year high at 4.2%, but core slowed to 0.2%. The Fed's next move hinges on whether this trend holds. The FOMC dot plot next week will set the tone for the dollar and risk assets.
WTI crude rose past $73 after Trump's warning. Analysts see a narrow path to $100 if Iranian exports are cut by 1 million bpd. The late-April deadline is the next catalyst.
Headline CPI hit 4.2% as energy surged 23.5% yoy. Core monthly inflation slowed to 0.2%, a relief for the Fed. The next data point is the PCE report.
July natural gas futures rose 2.99% to $3.234 as overnight weather models shifted warmer for mid-June. Production at 110.1 bcf/d caps rallies, but LNG feedgas demand at 17.9 bcf/d and storage builds below seasonal norms support the bull case. Follow-through Thursday decides near-term direction.
The January CPI print Wednesday will test whether the chip rally is a real reversal or a dead cat bounce. A hot number pushes yields higher and hits tech hardest. A soft one triggers a short squeeze.
Trump threatens fresh strikes on Iran ahead of US CPI. S&P 500 futures fall 1%, Nasdaq down 1.5%. Oil rallies to $89.50. Gold slides 2.3% to $4,165. CPI report next.
Sterling held near $1.27 as higher oil from U.S.-Iran tensions offset growing bets on a BoE rate cut. Brent rose above $85. UK GDP due Thursday is the next catalyst.