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215K Jobless Claims: Why the Dollar Stayed Flat
Initial claims rose to 215,000, above the 210,000 forecast. The dollar stayed flat as traders wait for a sustained labor-market softening. Next week’s print will test the trend.
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US initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 215,000 in the week ending May 23, missing the 210,000 consensus estimate. The four-week moving average climbed to 209,000. Continuing claims increased by 15,000 to 1.786 million in the week ending May 16, with its four-week moving average rising to 1.773 million.
The headline miss is small. The continuing claims trend carries more weight for the Federal Reserve policy path. A rising stock of unemployed workers taking longer to find jobs signals cooling labor-market momentum. If sustained, that shift reduces the urgency for the Fed to keep rates elevated.
Why the Dollar Held Ground
The US Dollar Index barely budged after the release. A first-touch reading would call the reaction dismissive. The better market read is that one weekly data point does not change the policy narrative. The Fed has repeatedly said it needs a sustained softening before cutting rates. Treasury yields held steady, with the 2-year yield hovering near 4.70%, reflecting that view.
Positioning also plays a role. Speculative shorts on the dollar have been building for weeks, according to CFTC data. A 5,000-claim miss is not enough to trigger a squeeze or a fresh leg lower. The market is waiting for a cluster of weak labor reports, not an isolated tick.