Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Sterling holds above 1.2900 as markets price in a Burnham leadership. Gilt stability is the real signal. The 1.3020 resistance level is the key test.
French business confidence missed the 95 forecast in June, unchanged from May at 94. Employment confidence fell to 89, the lowest since February 2021, ahead of the ECB's July meeting.
Eurozone services in contraction, UK flash tests slowdown, US holds firm. The divergence fuels rate differential trades, lifting USD and yields. Hungary rate decision due.
Pound flat near €1.1543 as traders await UK services PMI. Divergence with eurozone data could break the range. Next catalyst: Wednesday's 09:30 BST print.
The rupee opens higher as crude slides on U.S.-Iran talks. Fed rate hike expectations limit the gain. The key drivers are the outcome of nuclear negotiations and further Fed commentary.
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee says the key question is whether inflation stays stuck at 3%-4% or fades. Services inflation worries him most. The June CPI print on July 10 tests the framework.
Asian equities slipped as Fed rate hike bets rose to a one-in-three chance by December. Oil firmed after the U.S. waived Iran sanctions. The CPI print due this month is the next catalyst.
Input costs rose at the fastest rate since July 2022 as Middle East war pressures on energy and materials intensified, reinforcing the BOJ's recent hike to 1% and keeping further tightening firmly on the table. Manufacturing payrolls hit an eight-year high.
Business confidence hit its lowest since the pandemic in June's flash PMI, even as the composite edged to 49.8. New orders fell for a fourth month. The data reinforces a weakening domestic growth pulse for AUD.
Japan's Katayama held online talks with US Treasury's Bessent on Monday to discuss the yen's sharp decline, TBS reported. The meeting signals concern over yen weakness.
Asian and European stocks rose on Middle East peace talk optimism while tech and rate jitters hit Wall Street. The pound fell after Starmer resigned. Greenspan's death had no market impact.
Sterling held near $1.33 after Starmer's exit. Pantheon Macroeconomics said political noise still offsets oil tailwinds. Next data point: March CPI on Apr 17.
July natural gas holds above the 50-day moving average as expanding U.S. heat and near-record LNG feedgas demand tighten balances. A breakout above $3.396 opens a path toward $3.586.
Oil gapped higher at the open Monday, then reversed as Iran accepted nuclear inspectors. WTI support near $70, Brent resistance at the 200-day EMA. Next catalyst is the pace of Iran deal talks.
Sterling rose 0.38% to $1.3258 after Starmer resigned. Citi sees the rally as a squeeze, not a trend shift, with a $1.28 year-end target.
Mild weather and a 15% storage surplus above the five-year average keep natural gas anchored near the 200-day EMA. A move above $3.50 or below $3.00 breaks the stalemate.
May CPI hit 3.2% on gasoline. Core inflation held at 2.1%. TD expects the peak is behind us, keeping the BoC on hold for months. Here's how that maps to CAD positioning.
Sterling rose on UK political clarity after Burnham's Labour leadership bid and Streeting's endorsement. US-Iran talks advanced. GBP/JPY technical levels are in focus.
The DXY tests multi-year resistance near 107 as short-dated yields climb, reinforcing bets on delayed Fed rate cuts. The euro slips below $1.07, while the yen holds at 155.
Canada's CPI hit 3.2% in May, above the 3.0% consensus, as gasoline prices surged 33.2% yoy. Core inflation ex-fuel also accelerated, narrowing the BoC's rate-cut window.
VP Vance said 'good progress' on Iran. Ship tracking shows strait not open, IAEA access blocked. Uranium dilution reversible. Oil risk premium stays until Switzerland talks.
Month-end dollar demand and a firm greenback snapped the rupee's six-day rally. Dealers cite central bank smoothing near 83.10. Friday's US jobs data is the next test.
BofA June fund survey: record 80% crowded in semis, 34% fear second-wave inflation. Contrarian call: buy bonds, short semiconductors. Spain top World Cup pick.
GBP/CAD fell 0.4% last week as the Bank of England's cautious stance and UK political uncertainty outweighed steady crude prices. Support at 1.8600.
Dollar extends gains as EUR/USD tests 1.1420 support and USD/CHF targets 0.8100. S&P 500 hits fresh highs on Fed rate-cut expectations.
The US-Iran memorandum reopens the Strait of Hormuz on paper. Mine clearance and infrastructure repairs delay actual oil flows. Here's what that means for the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone.
Keir Starmer steps down after losing parliamentary support. Andy Burnham front-runner to succeed, but UK fiscal constraints remain. Sterling under pressure as leadership race begins.
Deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi leads technical talks on implementing the US-Iran roadmap. Markets eye oil and dollar as 60-day countdown starts.
GBP/USD nears YTD lows as Starmer exit talk mounts, while Canadian CPI data could trigger a dovish repricing of BoC rate expectations and weigh on the CAD.
The ASX 200 is oversold after a pullback. Wednesday's CPI and Thursday's household spending and employment reports will shape the RBA's next move.