Oil Targets $100 on Iran Talks Breakdown, Ceasefire Unconfirmed

Crude oil futures surged on Monday after reports that Iran had halted negotiations with the United States, reviving fears of supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude rallied toward the $91.00–$91.50 resistance zone, while Brent crude pushed above $96.00 as traders priced in a higher probability of escalation between Iran and Israel.

The move comes despite President Trump's claim that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a ceasefire. Neither side confirmed the truce, and traders demanded additional confirmation before accepting the risk-off narrative. The conflicting signals from the negotiating table have left oil markets in a familiar pattern: rallying on headlines, pausing on denials.

The Iran Negotiation Breakdown

Reports indicated that Iran will suspend talks with the U.S. until Israel stops its operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran views Hezbollah as its key regional asset, and any ceasefire between Israel and the militant group would increase the odds of a successful U.S.–Iran deal. Without that ceasefire, the negotiation path narrows.

President Trump said he spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and people from Hezbollah. He added that talks with Iran were continuing at a rapid pace and that Iran had not told him it was suspending negotiations. The conflicting pictures from the sides are normal for challenging negotiations, yet oil markets have started to price in the potential for escalation.

What This Changes for Supply

The key transmission mechanism runs through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil passes. A breakdown in U.S.–Iran talks removes the most likely diplomatic off-ramp for tensions in the region. If Israel continues its operation against Hezbollah, Iran may retaliate through proxies or directly threaten the strait.

WTI Oil Technical Levels

WTI crude is trying to settle above the $91.00–$91.50 resistance zone. A successful break would open the path toward the next resistance at $97.00–$97.50. The move higher has been driven by short-covering as much as fresh buying, which makes the rally vulnerable to a sharp reversal if ceasefire confirmation emerges.

On the downside, a failure to hold above $91.00 would send WTI back toward the $87.00–$88.00 support range. The 50-day moving average sits near $85.50 and would act as a floor in a risk-off unwind.

Short-Covering as a Catalyst

Most of today's upside momentum in WTI came from short-covering, according to positioning data. Traders who had built bearish bets on expectations of a diplomatic resolution were forced to cover as the Iran talks collapsed. This dynamic amplifies the move in both directions: a ceasefire confirmation would trigger a violent squeeze higher in the opposite direction.

Brent Oil and the $100 Threshold

Brent crude gained strong upside momentum, settling above the $96.00–$96.50 resistance zone. The next target is the psychologically important $100.00 level. A move above that would push Brent toward the 50-day moving average at $103.33.

The $100 level is not just psychological; it is a trigger for algorithmic trading systems and options gamma. A break above $100 would likely accelerate the move as stop-losses and delta hedging kick in.

On the support side, a move below $94.00 would push Brent toward the $91.00–$91.50 range. That level represents the pre-escalation price before the Iran talks collapsed.