Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Canada's June jobs report showed 18,000 new positions, near expectations. The unemployment rate dipped to 6.5%. TD Bank said the Bank of Canada will likely hold its policy rate at 2.25% next week.
Canada added 18.2K jobs, yen gains faded, Brent slipped below $80. FX rangebound ahead of BoC meeting. Markets await next catalysts as week ends quiet.
Employment rose 18,200 in June, topping forecasts. The jobless rate slipped to 6.5% as wage growth accelerated to 3.3%. The odds of a BoC rate cut next week recede.
Canada added 18.2k jobs in June, topping forecasts. Unemployment rate fell to 6.5% as participation held steady. Wage growth accelerated to 3.3% ahead of the BoC meeting.
Canada building permits fell 1.7% in May to C$12.4B, missing the 2.4% estimate, as non-residential construction dropped 6.1% led by industrial projects.
Canada building permits fell 1.7% in May, well below the +2.4% estimate, as non-residential weakness outweighed residential gains. Industrial permits plunged C$341M.
European stocks flat, oil up 0.7% on Iran tensions, yen strengthens to 161.80 after Japan pension shift. Focus turns to US CPI July 14 for next catalyst.
USD/JPY fell 0.3% to 161.80 after Japan signaled a massive pension allocation shift. WTI crude rose 0.7% to $72.60 as Strait of Hormuz closure persisted. Focus turns to US CPI on July 14.
European stocks mixed, dollar flat. WTI crude up 0.7% to $72.60. USD/JPY falls 0.3% to 161.80 after Japan pension signal. Focus turns to June US CPI due July 14.
The dollar extends its retreat after Trump says Iran wants a deal. Brent eases, yields dip, and markets price ECB rate hikes more aggressively, lifting EUR/USD. USD/JPY slides on pension fund comments.
The dollar extended losses after Trump said Iran seeks a deal. ECB rate hike bets outpace Fed, with September hike probability at 90%. EUR/USD rallied, USD/JPY fell on GPIF comments.
The dollar fell after Trump said Iran wants a deal. Brent crude eased, boosting ECB September rate hike odds to 90%. EURUSD held gains; Fed tightening lags. Katayama's GPIF call hit USDJPY.
Dollar falls as Trump says Iran seeking deal; Brent above $76. ECB September hike odds at 90% lift EURUSD. Japan minister's call hits USDJPY.
The dollar fell after Trump's comment that Iran is open to a deal. Brent crude stabilized above $76, while ECB rate hike bets rise to 90% for September, boosting EUR/USD.
The dollar fell after Trump said Iran is seeking a deal. Brent pulled back, Treasury yields dropped, and ECB rate-hike bets outpaced the Fed, supporting EURUSD.
The rupee slipped past 83 per dollar as Iran tensions spurred oil-import hedging and foreign outflows. RBI intervention capped losses, but traders see 83.20 as the next test.
Rupee closed near 83.50, down 0.3% on the week, pressured by import hedging and rising oil. IT exporters Infosys and Wipro may benefit. Volatility from geopolitical risks could limit gains.
Nordea expects the ECB to skip a July rate hike. The bank still forecasts a September move, citing lower oil prices and softer June inflation as easing price pressure.
RBA June minutes showed the board is not ruling out further tightening, supporting AUD/USD above 0.6930. The pair now tests 0.6960 resistance after breaking the descending trendline.
Traders cut exposure as geopolitical risk makes direction unclear. With the next catalyst unknown, the dollar stayed in a tight range on Friday. The pattern sets up a sharp move once uncertainty resolves.
Goldman Sachs' nowcasting model sees another quarter of modest UK growth. The GDP print will test the BOE's rate path and the pound's yield advantage. Here's what to watch.
WTI crude holds $72.08, Brent $76.13, natural gas oversold near $3.00. How these oil levels feed into inflation expectations, rate paths, and currency pairs.
India's ethanol blending costs more than imported petrol but has saved ₹1.97 lakh crore in forex, the government said. E20 target benefits sugar stocks, pressures OMCs, and eases rupee pressure.
The rupee stayed between 83.40 and 83.55 as oil held firm and the dollar was flat. The RBI capped the downside. The next catalyst is the RBI's April meeting.
The Strait of Hormuz closure lifts oil toward $73, while the yen rallies 0.5% after Katayama's remarks. S&P 500 futures slip 0.1%. The nuclear talks are the next catalyst.
Katayama's push for pension fund domestic investment triggers yen rally and JGB drop. Markets price a structural shift while awaiting concrete policy steps.
AlphaScala breaks down why CAD weakness is a USD story, not a domestic one. Rate differentials, productivity gaps, and timing point to a dollar-centric regime.
Japan's PPI rose 7.1% in June, above forecasts, reinforcing BOJ rate hike expectations. With yen near 40-year low, import costs add pressure. Markets now see October as likely timing for next move.
Finance Minister Katayama refused to comment on JGB yields, stressing fiscal sustainability. Ruling party tweaks economic blueprint, signaling possible fiscal changes ahead.
Japan's June PPI rose 7.1% y/y, above the 6.8% estimate and accelerating from May's 6.3%. The print raises the odds of a BOJ rate hike at the July 30-31 meeting.