Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Motilal Oswal expects rupee at 96/USD in FY27, citing oil prices and dollar strength. RBI intervenes to smooth decline, not defend levels, as trade deficit persists.
India exempts foreigners from tax on government bonds and widens market access, aiming to attract overseas investors and strengthen its case for global index inclusion.
GBP/USD holds near 1.3390 ahead of May US CPI. The inflation report will dictate the dollar's path and influence risk assets. Release due at 8:30 a.m. ET.
GBP/USD holds near 1.3390 as traders await the US CPI report. A hot print favours the dollar; a soft one opens a run at 1.3450.
Traders report RBI intervention via dollar-rupee swaps as the rupee tests 87.50. The central bank's move targets NDF maturity pressure. What confirms the intervention and what would weaken the case.
The RBI likely intervened via sell-buy swaps as NDF contract maturities drove dollar demand. The swap choice signals smoothing, not a hard floor defense.
BOJ rate path steepens: June hike to 1.0% and year-end 1.25% per Reuters poll. Yen carry trade unwind intensifies as inflation risks outweigh slowdown fears.
China's PPI hit 3.9% in May, the highest since July 2022, while CPI held at 1.2%. The widening gap between factory and consumer prices pressures the yuan and tests PBOC policy.
Japan producer inflation hit 6.3% yoy in May, fastest since 2023. Import costs surged 25.5% on energy, strengthening the case for a July BOJ rate hike. US CPI and Japan CPI are the next catalysts.
June 10 Asia data: China consumer inflation stays subdued, producer costs rise; Japan PPI may keep BOJ on tightening path. Yen-yuan divergence emerges.
Natgas double top nears trigger at $3.10 support. A close below $3.09 confirms the reversal, targeting $2.87. Thursday's EIA storage report is the catalyst.
BOJ rate hike to 1% is priced in but bond tapering pause removes hawkish edge. FX consolidates ahead of US CPI. Oil falls on ceasefire hopes that may fade.
The rupee strengthens as Brent crude retreats and foreign inflow expectations mount. The oil-import bill mechanism, RBI intervention threshold, and next catalyst explained.
A hot US jobs report widens the Fed-BOJ rate gap, pushing USD/JPY toward 152. The BOJ's July meeting is the next test for yen bears and carry traders alike.
July Nymex natural gas fell 8.2 cents after cooler forecasts for June 13-22. The structural LNG deficit from Ras Laffan creates a floor. The 50-day MA at $3.122 is the line.
S&P 500 breadth collapse and 63% October rate hike odds signal a bull trap in the semiconductor rally. Key levels: 7,340 support, 7,496 resistance.
The dollar pulls back from two-month highs as the geopolitical premium unwinds. Now the next US inflation print will set the rate path and the next leg for DXY, EUR/USD, and risk assets.
10-week US-Iran ceasefire strips geopolitical premium from WTI and Brent. NatGas diverges. $92.50 resistance and $94 fair-value zone define the breakdown. Next OPEC+ signals are the catalyst.
Crude holds $85.40 support as Middle East de-escalation resumes. A break below opens $79.00; a hold targets $102.20. Track volume and USD for confirmation.
Germany IP missed by 0.1pp, but the March revision and composition change the EUR read. Capital goods drove the miss. Construction and energy held up.
German factory orders miss expectations, tilting ECB toward easier policy. GBP/EUR holds near €1.1575 as UK gilt yields rise. Next catalyst: UK GDP.
Trump's repeated 'within days' Iran deal comments are losing price impact. Here is how forex traders should fade the headline and wait for verified barrel flows instead.
RBI's concessional forex swap reduces bank funding costs and supports the rupee. The Nifty Bank index rose 1.2%. Next catalyst: auction calendar and swap rate spread.
China May exports topped forecasts on Gulf-related front-loading and AI chip demand. The better market read focuses on the Fed policy path and the June PMI test.
China's May trade surplus surged to $105.43B, imports rose 27.4%. The composition raises questions about sustainability and trade friction risks. June data is the next test.
NAB Business Confidence improved 9 points to -14 in May as inflation pressures eased. Purchase cost growth halved to 2.6%. The RBA's July meeting now sets the AUD direction.
Westpac consumer sentiment index falls 2.9% to 80.6, near record lows. The RBA faces a tough choice: pause next week or keep tightening. AUD positioning and the Q2 CPI print will determine the next move.
The dollar holds near a two-month high as the Iran-Israel truce collapse keeps oil premiums intact and Fed rate hike bets alive. DXY tests 106.50 resistance.
China's May auto NEV share hit 62.9% as oil prices crushed petrol demand. The structural shift accelerates, with implications for oil demand forecasts and global auto competition.
Natural gas tests $3.10 neckline as double top builds. A breakdown would lower inflation expectations, shifting Fed rate path and dollar direction. Next catalyst: weekly EIA storage report.