Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Canada building permits fell 7.6% in April, far worse than the 3.5% decline economists expected. The miss adds to a run of soft domestic data that could reinforce the case for Bank of Canada rate cuts.
ECB raised rates by 25bps to 2.25% and lifted inflation forecasts, citing Middle East energy costs. Core inflation projections rose, indicating broader pass-through.
Sterling held near recent highs vs euro as ECB decision looms. The euro's direction depends on Lagarde's tone at 12:45 GMT. A hawkish hold tests 0.8420 resistance; a dovish tilt targets 0.8350. UK yields offer support; BOE next week.
France pushes G7 on global imbalances, citing China exports and U.S. deficit. The May finance ministers' meeting is the next test for currency markets.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until further notice. Ship traffic is below 10 vessels daily. Oil tested $97.50. Insurers have pulled coverage.
Ueda will be in Washington as the BOJ announces its rate decision Friday. Without him at the press conference, markets have to parse Deputy Governor Uchida's tone on the next hike.
Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran remain on track despite Gulf military exchanges, CNN reports. Oil stays elevated but restrained as markets price the Fed tightening into a supply shock.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate traded sideways on Wednesday as investors weighed the Bank of Canada's latest policy decision against ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and subdued
WTI crude tests $97.50 resistance as Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz. A break above opens $105; rejection targets $80. Brent holds above $90 support.
Asian equity futures bounce after US airstrikes on Iran are declared complete, but the relief is shallow. WTI crude jumps 3.5% to $91.84, gold collapses 4.4%, and the Dow loses 1.9%. The ECB meets today with a 25bp hike fully priced. USD/JPY hovers near the 160.73 intervention line.
Brent crude's double bottom pattern near $90 challenges markets' de-escalation assumptions. A break above $94.89 could signal longer supply disruption with inflation and policy implications.
ECB poised to raise rates Thursday to head off inflation from Iran conflict energy costs. Lagarde's tone will set direction for euro, bonds and equities.
The ECB's quarter-point hike is priced in. The euro's next move depends on Lagarde's signals on September and the energy-driven inflation outlook,
The Treasury auctions $39B in 10-year notes at 1 p.m. ET. The bid-to-cover and tail will signal demand, influencing yields, the dollar, and equity valuations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said there are grounds for a rate cut at next week's meeting, praising Nabiullina's policy as she recovers from illness.
The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% and signaled it will look through energy-driven inflation as long as pass-through remains limited. The next CPI print will test that stance.
Headline inflation hit a three-year high at 4.2%, but core slowed to 0.2%. The Fed's next move hinges on whether this trend holds. The FOMC dot plot next week will set the tone for the dollar and risk assets.
WTI crude rose past $73 after Trump's warning. Analysts see a narrow path to $100 if Iranian exports are cut by 1 million bpd. The late-April deadline is the next catalyst.
Headline CPI hit 4.2% as energy surged 23.5% yoy. Core monthly inflation slowed to 0.2%, a relief for the Fed. The next data point is the PCE report.
July natural gas futures rose 2.99% to $3.234 as overnight weather models shifted warmer for mid-June. Production at 110.1 bcf/d caps rallies, but LNG feedgas demand at 17.9 bcf/d and storage builds below seasonal norms support the bull case. Follow-through Thursday decides near-term direction.
The January CPI print Wednesday will test whether the chip rally is a real reversal or a dead cat bounce. A hot number pushes yields higher and hits tech hardest. A soft one triggers a short squeeze.
Trump threatens fresh strikes on Iran ahead of US CPI. S&P 500 futures fall 1%, Nasdaq down 1.5%. Oil rallies to $89.50. Gold slides 2.3% to $4,165. CPI report next.
Sterling held near $1.27 as higher oil from U.S.-Iran tensions offset growing bets on a BoE rate cut. Brent rose above $85. UK GDP due Thursday is the next catalyst.
Short-term Indian government bond yields fell to their lowest in three months on Wednesday, steepening the yield curve to a one-year high on expectations that banks will invest funds raised under the
The CFTC's new rule proposal would govern how prediction market platforms operate, potentially affecting traders who use these markets to gauge economic or political outcomes.
WTI broke below $88, Brent tested $90 after the US-Iran truce removed the risk premium. The macro path from oil to FX and rates is now in play.
CL futures hold above the 85.40 support zone after the Iran-Israel risk premium unwinds. A hold could trigger a move to 102.20; a break opens 79.00.
Iran shot down a US helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz. The US hit 20 Iranian targets overnight. Crude oil and the yen surged on safe-haven flows. The UN Security Council meets Thursday.
Iran's Foreign Ministry says it must re-assess talks with the US after overnight clashes. The escalation follows the downing of a US Apache helicopter and retaliatory strikes.
Motilal Oswal expects rupee at 96/USD in FY27, citing oil prices and dollar strength. RBI intervenes to smooth decline, not defend levels, as trade deficit persists.