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WTI crude gapped higher after US strikes on Iranian targets, reinforcing $70 support. The 200-day EMA near $75 caps the upside, locking oil in a summer range.
Two-year yields touched 4.24% overnight despite three Fed cuts. BMO's Lyngen flags a July surprise risk. CPI Tuesday is the next test.
Sterling holds near multi-month highs as Thursday's US CPI and UK GDP reports set the next direction. Support at 1.3340, with a push toward 1.3500 if the dollar weakens.
Iran strikes trigger choppy forex week. Dollar grinds higher against yen near 163, euro holds range near 1.1350, pound swings around 200-day EMA. Thursday CPI is next catalyst.
Brent stalled below $80 as traders waited for June CPI and Warsh's first Fed testimony. The Dollar failed to rally on Middle East escalation. NZD outperformed on services data.
Dollar opens higher after Trump ends ceasefire; Fed rate hike odds jump to 50%. CPI and Warsh testimony in focus this week. Gold slides to $4,000.
WTI crude rose 3.5% to $73.90 as the dollar eased and European stocks calmed. Focus turns to US CPI later this week, with 10-year yields near June highs.
The rupee options market tilts bearish as oil prices climb. Risk-reversal skews widen, traders say, signaling more hedging against rupee weakness. RBI steps in; bias persists.
India's June CPI hit 4.38%, exceeding the RBI's 4% target for the first time since February 2024. Higher food and fuel costs from a delayed monsoon drove the acceleration.
GPIF overhaul timeline pushed back, yen falls. NZD/JPY rallies as New Zealand services sector returns to expansion in June.
Oil benchmarks test 200-day SMAs as Gulf tensions escalate; Strait of Hormuz traffic thin. CPI data due Tuesday, core risk at 3% or above. Gold slips 1.5%.
Japan’s government signaled the GPIF can adjust its portfolio, sending USD/JPY to 162.00. The pension fund already has room to tilt domestic within existing ranges, sources said.
WTI crude climbed to $74.33, Brent to $79.10 after US-Iran strikes resumed. S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, Nasdaq futures lost 1.4% as risk appetite faded.
Brent crude presses $80 as US-Iran escalation widens across the Gulf. A break above $80.59 could trigger a rally toward $85, with the 55-day EMA at $85.59 as the next target.
Brent jumped 3.5% after Iran-US strikes tore through the market's limited-escalation assumption. June CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony Tuesday are the next catalysts.
New Zealand's services sector expanded in June for the first time since January, with the BNZ PSI rising to 50.6. New orders surged to 53.0, but employment and activity remain below expansion.
The rupee takes the direct hit from higher crude, while the euro is only indirectly affected. That asymmetry gives EUR/INR a mild upside bias, but domestic support caps the move.
Japanese yen bears are retreating as the dollar's bullish positioning hits a 20-year peak, a level that has historically marked a trend turning point. The next COT data is due Friday.
NZ services sector returned to growth in June, with the BNZ-BusinessNZ PSI rising to 50.6 from 48.0, the first expansion since January.
The BNZ-BusinessNZ index rose to 50.6 from 48.0. The recovery is narrow, with Employment at 48.8. BNZ sees GDP growth near 2%.
Incoming UK PM Burnham plans single autumn event merging budget and spending review, with land tax, nationalisation and defence pledge, compressed timeframe risks policy slippage and market unease.
Iran struck Qatar and the UAE for the first time in months and again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. US forces hit 300+ Iranian targets over three nights. The ceasefire is over, Trump said.
Tuesday's June CPI data and Fed Chair Warsh's semiannual testimony could redraw the path for the dollar and risk assets, with the Fed's 2% target in focus.
GBP/USD held near 1.3366 after Pantheon Macroeconomics said the UK economy is showing surprising resilience despite higher oil prices, though Middle East tensions pose a risk of higher inflation and further BOE tightening.
Westpac cut its Brent crude forecasts after Strait of Hormuz shipping recovered faster than expected. Brent trades near $71.50 as the geopolitical risk premium fades.
The US dollar was mixed last week. The combination of strong data and the central bank's hawkish hike lifted the New Zealand dollar to the top of the G10 currencies.
The 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.56% resistance last week, signaling markets are pricing a higher-for-longer Fed. Next week's US CPI report will test whether the breakout holds.
Growth data firmed and inflation fears eased, leaving the BoC set to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% for a sixth straight meeting. U.S. CPI likely slowed to 3.7%.
Natural gas broke below the 20-week MA, confirming a bearish trend. Support tested at $2.86. Next downside targets: $2.69 and $2.50. Resistance at $3.02-$3.12.
Oil prices fell Friday after Trump said Iran asked to continue talks, reducing war risk. WTI tested $70.50 support. Natural gas dropped after a larger-than-expected storage build.