Brent Oil Double Bottom Could Signal Real Hormuz Disruption

Over the past 48 hours, a US Army Apache helicopter was shot down off Oman. President Trump ordered strikes against Iranian coastal radars. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard retaliated with ballistic missiles and drones. Kuwait activated air defenses. Bahrain sounded sirens. Brent crude, however, remains near $90, far below the March peak of $120. That price action suggests traders still expect diplomacy to prevail, several market participants said.

Trump accused Tehran of delaying ceasefire negotiations and claimed the US controls the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s military command responded by declaring the Strait closed to oil tankers, warning that vessels could be fired upon. A sustained closure would be the most serious threat to global energy flows in decades, analysts said.

Brent crude has not reflected that risk. Prices trade as though traders expect a diplomatic resolution before inventories deplete. That restraint signals markets still view the closure as temporary, several traders noted.

Technically, the rebound from this week’s low at $89.57 has been capped by the 55-period 4-hour EMA near $94.89. Bias stays to the downside, chart watchers said. A sustained break above that EMA would put the $98.99 cluster resistance in focus, which aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the decline from $115.30 to $89.57. A decisive break above that level would complete a double bottom pattern with lows at $89.93 and $89.57, signaling a near-term bullish reversal. That would open the path to the 61.8% retracement at $105.47 at least, technical analysts noted.

A confirmed double bottom would carry implications beyond oil. It would signal that traders are beginning to price a longer disruption to supplies. That would affect inflation expectations and central bank policy, several analysts said. Markets have assumed diplomacy will restore stability. The chart may soon test that assumption.