Recent headlines from the sources AlphaScala monitors. AlphaScala analysis is published in the main market section.
Micron's guidance reset tech sentiment ahead of the US PCE print. The dollar's crowded long positioning opens it to a downside shock if core inflation misses, FP Markets' Hill says.
Short positions on the Indonesian rupiah and Indian rupee fell from multi-month highs, a Reuters poll showed, as lower oil prices and central bank measures attracted inflows.
French consumer confidence edged up to 84 in June, beating the 83 consensus, but unemployment expectations hit their highest since March 2021 at 60.
US PCE data, jobless claims, and Fed's Williams speech lead today's calendar. The PCE is lagging – the July 14 CPI matters more for the dollar and rate expectations.
Consumer climate edges up to -29.2 but misses forecasts. Income expectations recover modestly, but spending stays depressed. No return to pre-war levels, Bürkl says, as inflation fears ease.
Germany's GfK consumer sentiment for July came in at -29.2, below the -27.6 consensus, as income expectations rose modestly but buying willingness stayed pessimistic.
Dollar index holds at 101.36, a 13-month high, as oil breaks its 200-day moving average and gold slides to $3,981. The PCE print tonight will test the dollar's momentum.
Micron's 15% after-hours surge drives Asia-Pacific semiconductor rally. Dollar index hits 13-month high at 101.36, pressuring gold to 7-month low. PCE data due later today.
BOJ's Tamura said inflation at 2% and called for rate hikes toward 2% neutral. Australia added 40,300 jobs but quality mixed. Dollar edged lower. Micron earnings lifted Asian tech.
The Australian labour market showed renewed strength in May, with the jobless rate falling from a 4.5-year high, keeping the RBA on alert for further tightening.
BoJ's Tamura says rates should rise 25bp every few months to 2% neutral level. Underlying inflation already at target, companies passing on costs faster. Yen faces further downside risk if BoJ follows through.
The dollar surged past chart resistance and is on track for its best month in almost a year, with traders betting on a strong U.S. economy keeping rates elevated. All eyes are on Friday's CPI report.
The dollar hit a seven-month high as traders price a 40% chance of a Fed hike in November. Euro below $1.0850, sterling tests $1.2650 support. GDP data Thursday is the next catalyst.
The rupee bounced from its intraday low after the central bank stepped in to sell dollars. The intervention helped stabilize the currency during volatile trade.
Oil's slide to a four-month low pulled down bond yields. Tech stocks sold off on valuation anxiety, diverging from the rate-driven relief in Treasuries.
Natural gas consolidates near the 20-day MA with resistance at $3.38 holding and layered support between $3.15 and $3.04. A break below $3.15 opens downside risk; a move above $3.38 targets $3.44.
Crude dives 4.5% as tankers resume Hormuz transit. UAE exports at 85% of pre-war supply, unwind accelerates. WTI tests $70, Brent erases war gains. Thursday EIA report.
The U.S. 5-year note auction tailed 0.7 bps at 4.20% with a 2.35 bid-to-cover, a steady result that keeps the dollar's recent rally on firm footing.
Treasury's Bessent backed Fed Chair Warsh's plan to scrap the dot plot, citing dual inflation risks from Iran and AI that require flexibility.
Bets for a September Fed hike climbed to 72% from 45% last month, fueling a sixth-day rally that broke above 101. The next targets: 102 and the 200-week moving average.
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 36 crossings, up from single digits at the conflict's peak but still far below the 130-140 pre-war baseline.
Sterling hit a 10-month euro high as traders eyed Andy Burnham's successor bid and the potential choice for finance minister. The appointment will set UK fiscal direction.
Dollar rose to 13-month high as rate-hike expectations and tech selloff drove safe-haven flows. Two-year yields above 5.1%. CPI due Wednesday may determine next leg.
The ECB's biennial report shows zero candidates meet all four Maastricht conditions. Hungary satisfies none. Forint falls on no near-term entry catalyst.
Ifo business sentiment rose to 85.6; expectations missed forecasts. The euro stays under pressure as ECB rate cuts remain on the table. Next catalysts: flash PMIs and ECB meeting.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said more rate hikes are likely after raising the benchmark rate to 1.00% last week. The hawkish message reinforces expectations that the normalization cycle has further to go.
The Reserve Bank of India intervened in forex markets as Governor Das said the repo rate is restrictive enough to meet the 4% inflation target. Forward premiums fell, cutting hedging costs for importers and boosting net yields for foreign bond investors.
The greenback climbed to its strongest level in over a year as a technology-led equity rout drove investors toward safety, with rate hike expectations adding to the bid.
Euro broke below $1.1400 for the first time since November after weak PMIs and Lagarde's dovish tone. The next test is $1.1310 if selling continues.
The dollar breakout sent the Nasdaq 100 down 3.3% and AUD/USD to a two-month low. Gold nears $4,024 support as yields rise.