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Hormuz traffic climbs to 36 vessels, still far below pre-war levels
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz climbed to 36 crossings, up from single digits at the conflict's peak but still far below the 130-140 pre-war baseline.
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President Trump reiterated Monday that no money has been sent to Iran yet and that passage through the Strait of Hormuz will remain toll-free. The comments push back against speculation that Tehran was extracting payments from vessels transiting the waterway.
"No money has been given to Iran," Trump said. "Hormuz will be toll-free."
The assertion does not settle the question of whether Iran is exerting control over passage in other ways. Vessel traffic through the strait shows signs of recovery from the depths of the conflict. Kpler data tracked 36 vessels crossing the waterway in the prior day, up from single-digit crossings at the peak of hostilities. That is still a fraction of the 130-140 vessels that typically transited before the war.
Trump claimed yesterday that 19 million barrels of oil were moving through the strait. The current vessel count does not support that figure. At roughly 1 million barrels per very large crude carrier, 36 vessels would carry about 36 million barrels if all were fully loaded crude tankers. The mix includes other vessel types, so the actual oil volume is lower.
The improvement from single-digit crossings is real. The gap between the current 36-vessel count and the pre-war baseline of 130-140 is the number that matters for crude oil and tanker rates. Every incremental vessel that clears the strait reduces the risk premium baked into Brent and WTI. At the current rate, restoring normal flow would take weeks, not days.
Some analysts describe the current phase as Stage 4 or 5 of a phased reopening, though no official framework has been published. The tell will be how much further the figure climbs in the days ahead. If traffic reaches 60-70 vessels within a week, the risk premium will compress quickly. If it stalls near 40, the market will price in a longer disruption.
Trump offered no timeline for when traffic might return to normal levels. The administration's position is that Hormuz passage is free. The data says it is not yet free in practice.