Lightspeed Commerce Q4 revenue $290.8M beat estimates, EPS $0.10 missed $0.12. Guidance raised to $305-315M. Stock down 20% YTD at $12.35 CAD. Can growth outpace losses?
Lightspeed Commerce Inc. currently carries an Alpha Score of n/a, giving AlphaScala's model a neutral read on the setup.
Lightspeed Commerce reported fiscal Q4 revenue that surpassed analyst expectations, while adjusted earnings per share fell short. The results come at the end of the first year of a three-year transformation plan designed to streamline the business and balance growth with profitability.
The Montréal-based technology company posted $290.8 million USD in revenue for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, a 15 percent increase from a year earlier. Adjusted income per share of $0.10 missed the consensus estimate of $0.12 by three cents. Lightspeed recorded a net loss of $28.6 million, or $0.20 per share, a sharp improvement from the $575.9 million loss in the same quarter last year – a figure that included a goodwill writedown. The company ended the quarter with $453.9 million in cash and equivalents.
For the full fiscal 2026 year, Lightspeed cleared $1.23 billion in revenue, turning a net loss of $144.4 million overall. The company generated $72.5 million in adjusted EBITDA for the year and now forecasts between $75 million and $95 million for fiscal 2027.
Management also raised first-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to between $305 million and $315 million, above the prior range.
Lightspeed's stock is down more than 20 percent on the Toronto Stock Exchange since January, trading at $12.35 CAD before Thursday's open. The decline tracks a broader selloff in software stocks.
The headline revenue beat and narrow EPS miss tell only part of the story. The company's adjusted EBITDA guidance implies modest acceleration from the $72.5 million achieved this year to a midpoint of $85 million. The guidance range of $75–95 million leaves room for execution variance, with the low end representing no growth and the high end a 31 percent increase.
Key figures from the quarter:
The net loss improvement is largely cosmetic compared to the prior year's goodwill writedown, though operating losses have also narrowed. The company still posted a negative net income for the full year.
These earnings mark the first full year of a plan CEO Dax Dasilva outlined in early 2025 after returning to the role. The plan focuses on two growth engines: retail in North America and hospitality in Europe. Those two segments now generate three quarters of Lightspeed's total revenue.
In the fourth quarter, Lightspeed added roughly 3,200 customer locations in these areas, and revenue from the two growth engines rose 24 percent year over year. Dasilva called the year's results a "resounding success," pointing to customer location growth and gross transaction volume that increased every quarter during the fiscal year.
Another pillar of the plan is portfolio streamlining. Last month Lightspeed sold Upserve, a non-core US hospitality product line, to private equity firm Skyview Equity for up to $81 million USD in cash – more than 80 percent less than what it paid for the company in 2020. The deal pays $44 million upfront with $37 million in earnouts over 24 months based on performance targets. The sale frees up resources for the two core segments.
Lightspeed shipped several product updates during the quarter. The company introduced an integration with wholesale marketplace Faire, an AI-powered Optical Character Recognition tool for scanning products, and point-of-sale upgrades.
The company also added new leadership. Bhawna Singh joined as chief technology officer from Okta and Glassdoor, where she held the same role. John Shapiro, previously chief product and technology officer, shifted to chief product officer. These changes aim to accelerate product development in the core growth areas.
Lightspeed's TSX-listed stock (LSPD) has lost ground this year. Growth stocks broadly receded. The stock is down more than 20 percent year-to-date, trading around $12.35 CAD before Thursday's open. The company ended the quarter with $453.9 million in cash and equivalents, giving it a clean balance sheet to fund the transformation.
For a company still posting a net loss, valuation depends on the path to sustained positive net income. The current share price implies a multiple of roughly 2x fiscal 2026 revenue – not unreasonable for a software business growing 15 percent, a premium that requires consistent execution. The stock market analysis context shows that high-growth software stocks have been repriced across the board.
The EPS miss, while narrow, underscores the central tension in Lightspeed's story. Revenue is growing, and the guidance raise signals confidence in the top line. Yet the market is demanding stronger evidence of bottom-line leverage.
What this means: Lightspeed must narrow its net loss at a faster pace than current guidance suggests, or the stock could face additional pressure. The adjusted EBITDA guidance of $75–95 million for fiscal 2027 implies at best a 31 percent increase from the $72.5 million this year – modest acceleration.
What would reduce the risk:
What would make it worse:
Risk to watch: The EPS miss suggests the market is not yet pricing in margin leverage. A Q1 EBITDA miss would undercut the transformation narrative.
The raised guidance is the key catalyst for the next quarter. If Lightspeed delivers Q1 revenue at or above $315 million with adjusted EBITDA near $95 million, the bull case gains credibility. If revenue comes in at $305 million or below and EBITDA misses $75 million, the stock could retest its recent lows.
Lightspeed's transformation is still early. The Q4 print shows a company that can grow revenue and shrink losses, yet the EPS miss and stock decline suggest the market wants faster evidence of bottom-line leverage. The next quarter's numbers will test whether the guidance raise is a credible signal or a temporary reprieve.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.