Halvio Capital's Q2 Letter: Humm Group Bet Sours, Goldmoney Pitch Emerges

Halvio Capital's managed accounts returned 5.79% in the second quarter, trailing most major indices during a period when the S&P 500 posted its best quarter since 2020 and the Russell 2000 its best half since 1991. The fund manager attributed the broad rally to a resurgent AI trade, a sector he said he avoids entirely.

The quarter's biggest drag was a new position: Humm Group Ltd. (HUMGF), an Australian nonbank lender. Halvio initiated the stake this quarter and is already down roughly 30%. The stock sold off after Credit Corp. Group dropped its $0.77/share bid. The company's chairman had previously offered $0.58/share, a move that drew a 115-page ASX panel report detailing governance issues. Halvio noted that two board members, including the chairman, have since resigned and been replaced. There is now talk of selling the commercial lending division, which generates the bulk of earnings. Humm shares trade at just over half of tangible book value, while most takeouts in the sector happen at premiums to tangible asset value.

Strong performers helped offset the loss. Mestek (MCCK) continued its rally after the CEO and majority shareholder, Stew Reed, released a shareholder letter hinting at a potential Dutch auction buyback and more acquisitions. Halvio said Mestek trades at under 4x EV/EBIT, with 77% of its market cap in cash and securities. FP Newspapers Inc. (FPNUF) rose over 30% in the quarter. The fund manager said the company, now in cash accumulation mode after paying down its term loan, trades at under 2x EV/EBITDA on look-through earnings from its underlying newspaper partnership. Beng Kuang Marine shares were up 50% at one point during the quarter. Halvio trimmed the position during the rally and exited entirely after the quarter ended, booking a gain of over 100% since November.

Halvio sold Tetragon, Pacific Health Care Organization (PFHO), and trimmed F.I.L.A. SpA (FILAF) during the quarter. Tetragon was sold because the manager grew impatient with its capital allocation and believes Ripple missed its IPO window, which would have allowed Tetragon to profit. PFHO was sold to redeploy capital into new ideas.

New positions initiated during the quarter include Humm Group, Beasley Broadcast Group (BBGI), Sato Foods, and Goldmoney Inc. (XAUMF).

The fund manager devoted a lengthy section of the letter to Goldmoney, a precious metals storage and trading platform. The company recently shifted strategy: it sold down about $60 million in precious metals from its balance sheet, disposed of its Schiff Gold trading business, and began investing in UK real estate. Goldmoney now has an enterprise value of $130 million, with a UK real estate portfolio valued at roughly $140 million. That leaves the capital-light storage and trading business, which generated $49 million in EBIT for fiscal 2026, valued at zero in the current enterprise value calculation, Halvio argued.

The real estate portfolio, held through a UK subsidiary, consists of about 10 properties valued at $200 million against $60 million in non-recourse mortgages. The properties generated $11 million in net operating income in 2026. One property, the Clarendon Estate in Oxford, was purchased out of bankruptcy for 27 million pounds. A sale pamphlet listed potential gross development value in excess of 300 million pounds, though Halvio cautioned that figure is uncertain. The company recently sold another property for $70.1 million, a gain on its $48 million purchase price in 2024.

Goldmoney also holds a 36% stake in Mene Inc., a Canadian online jewelry maker, valued at $13 million. Halvio discounted that value by 50% in his calculation, calling it a control position that could be difficult to exit quickly.

With 12.5 million shares outstanding at $15, Goldmoney's market cap is $188 million. Halvio's calculation: net out excess cash, metals, and the discounted Mene stake, and the enterprise value is $130 million. The real estate alone is worth $140 million, leaving the core storage and trading business at zero. He compared the business to Sprott Inc. or Brink's, which trade at 10x EV/EBIT or higher, and said he sees 50% upside on a realistic multiple, with potential for 100% or more if the precious metals rally persists and the real estate development plays out. The company has retired 17% of its shares outstanding over the past five years through open-market buybacks.

Halvio closed the letter with a warning about market froth. He noted that the S&P 500 trades at 32x trailing earnings, that the largest IPO ever for a rocket company came at 100x revenue, and that companies are adding "AI" to their names to juice stock prices. Myseum Inc. changed its name to "Myseum.AI" and doubled in after-hours trading. Allbirds, the shoe company, said it was pivoting to AI infrastructure and the stock ran up 500%. Halvio said the pattern is reminiscent of the dot-com and blockchain eras and typically does not end well.