GreenWood Investors posts a 3.6% H1 loss, rotates out of Leonardo into CTT and Jack in the Box, and escalates the Swatch governance fight.
GreenWood Investors, the $2 billion activist fund, posted a 3.6% loss in the first half of 2026 against an 11.7% gain for the MSCI ACWI. The underperformance came after a three-year run of 100% net returns. In a letter to clients, the firm said it had rotated out of positions where returns had “materially outgrown future earnings” and into new bets that could replicate the earlier gains.
The letter named four core positions: CTT Correios de Portugal (CTTEY), Jack in the Box (JACK), The Swatch Group (SWGAY), and a new SPV it declined to identify. It also highlighted Genus (GENSF), NexGen Energy (NXE), and Rentokil (RTO) as holdings with “conservative balance sheets but extremely high upside leverage.”
GreenWood said it had trained AI agents to widen the number of opportunities it screens, compressing years of search work into weeks. But the firm is avoiding the AI hype cycle. “We believe the demand growth in compute capacity cannot sustain the supply-side growth expectations,” the letter said. “Those investment cycles cannot continue forever.”
CTT: The Bank Spin-Off Catalyst
GreenWood’s largest disclosed bet is CTT, the Portuguese postal operator that also owns BancoCTT. The fund first invested attracted by the potential sale or spin-off of the bank, a catalyst stalled by negative European rates. With rates now positive and Iberian bank valuations back to pre-GFC levels, GreenWood sees a “transformational” monetization.
The e-commerce business, which drives most of CTT’s earnings, is facing volatility from Europe’s removal of the deminimis tax on low-value imports. GreenWood said the company expects to grow through the change. Meanwhile, CTT has been buying back stock at a pace of 1% of shares outstanding in a few weeks. “If the bank can catch anything remotely close to Iberian peers, and that capital is redeployed into logistics assets or company shares at similar valuation levels, this next year will break another record for being the most transformational one in CTT's 506-year history,” the letter said.
Jack in the Box: The Operational Turnaround
GreenWood said it “materially added” to Jack in the Box in the first half. The board installed Mark King as interim CEO in May. King, a former Taco Bell chief, joined the board last fall in a settlement with the fund. The company refinanced all near-term debt maturities through 2029, removing a major overhang that GreenWood said had kept short interest at 35% of shares outstanding.
The letter pointed to same-store sales turning positive in May and July, before any impact from King’s operational changes. “If transformations at Arby's, Chili's and Burger King have been able to deliver staggering resurgences, we can only imagine what happens when a brand that has the right to push the innovation envelope gets its mojo back,” the fund wrote.
Swatch: The Governance Fight
GreenWood’s activist campaign at Swatch is escalating. The fund received 80% support from bearer shareholders for its board candidate, but the board appointed a non-nominated director instead. GreenWood said it has three ongoing actions in Swiss courts. “We can hardly wait for our next day in court,” the letter said.
The fund sees improving fundamentals for Swiss watches. Secondary watch prices have risen for over a year, and U.S. dollar-based sales are compounding in double digits. Gen Z is 2-4 times more likely to buy a traditional watch than older generations, GreenWood said. “With rock bottom margins that have a high sensitivity to incremental revenue growth, coupled with a very high short interest, and conviction that governance will evolve, we are encouraged by the impact we can have.”
Rentokil and Other Positions
GreenWood also cited Rentokil (RTO) as a holding with a “customer service overhaul in the US.” The pest-control company has been cutting costs and improving service margins. The fund did not disclose position sizes but said all its holdings have “conservative balance sheets but extremely high upside leverage.”
The letter closed with a quote from Linus Pauling: “The best way to have a good idea is to have a lot of ideas.” GreenWood said it had “more shots on goal” and was actively reallocating to positions where the market is underweighting the timing and magnitude of transformations.
GreenWood Investors LLC and its affiliates hold positions in all securities mentioned. The letter is not a recommendation to buy or sell.
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