Grayscale Puts 67% Odds on CLARITY Act as Crypto Bill Clears Senate Panel

Grayscale Research sees a two-in-three chance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act becomes law this year, a bet that would reshape how institutions touch crypto.

The CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) would split oversight between the SEC and the CFTC. Investment contracts stay with the SEC. Digital commodities go to the CFTC. The bill passed the House in July 2025, then cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, 2026, on a bipartisan 15-9 vote. Polymarket puts the 2026 passage probability at 67%.

Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl published a breakdown on May 7 arguing that regulatory certainty is the single biggest unlock for institutional capital. His research named four blockchains as likely beneficiaries of post-legislation activity: Ethereum, Solana, BNB Chain, and Canton Network. Canton is a blockchain built by Digital Asset Holdings specifically for institutional finance, with participation from major banks and exchanges.

The policy conversations at Washington events have centered on jurisdictional clarity, stablecoin rules, and capital formation standards. Banks want to know whether they can offer stablecoin-based products without violating securities law.

A 67% probability still leaves a one-in-three chance the bill stalls. Even if it passes, implementation timelines and SEC-CFTC rulemaking could push the actual impact into 2027 or beyond.