Gold's 5% Weekly Surge Sets Up Jackson Hole, PCE Test

Gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange closed last week with a 5.13% gain, rising ₹7,932 to ₹1.62 lakh per 10 grams for October delivery. Silver for September delivery settled at ₹2.46 lakh per kilogram, up ₹10,673 or 4.52%.

The rally tracked global benchmarks. Comex gold for December delivery rose $243.3, or 5.5%, to $4,680.6 an ounce in New York. Silver futures climbed $4.42, or nearly 7%, to $69.53.

Analysts pointed to softer bond yields and improving liquidity as the main supports. "Gold remained firmly positive this week, gaining more than 5 per cent to close near ₹1.62 lakh per 10 grams on the MCX," Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst at LKP Securities, said.

Pranav Mer, Senior Vice President at JM Financial Services, attributed the mid-week spike to US Treasury Department measures. The department doubled down on its buyback of longer-dated bonds, he said, which pushed yields lower and lifted bullion. "The sharp price move mid-week was ignited by liquidity measures announced by the US Treasury Department," Mer said.

This week, the focus shifts to US Core PCE inflation and GDP figures due Thursday and Friday. Those prints will set expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move. The Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled August 27-29, is also on traders' calendars. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote address at the event, Mer said.

Developments in West Asia – particularly US-Iran peace talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz – remain in focus, analysts said.

"In the coming trading session, we expect bias to remain positive," Mer said. "Some profit-booking cannot be ruled out."