
Gold eased 0.28% on MCX as Iran tensions tested safe-haven demand. Silver rose 0.10%. Tanker traffic through Hormuz slowed to 13 crossings, down from 33 daily average.
Gold prices slipped across Indian retail markets on Friday as a 0.28% decline in MCX futures tempered the metal's safe-haven appeal despite renewed US-Iran tensions. Silver edged higher, a split that suggests traders are pricing regional disruption risk against a stronger dollar.
MCX gold futures traded at ₹145,460 per 10 grams around 9:08 am, down from Thursday's close. Silver was up 0.10% at ₹227,160 per kg. In Delhi, 24-karat gold fell to ₹144,940 per 10 grams. Mumbai quoted ₹145,190, while Kolkata and Chennai posted ₹144,980 and ₹145,600 respectively.
The catalyst was geopolitical, not macro. US President Donald Trump told reporters Wednesday evening that he does not know whether Washington and Iran are sliding back into full-fledged war. He added that Iran "badly" wants a deal and said American forces had "just hit [Iran] very hard." His comments came after oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed sharply. Only 13 tankers crossed on Wednesday, down from a daily average of 33 over the prior week, according to Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler. CNBC US reported that the ships either followed Iran's controlled route or turned off their transponders to avoid tracking.
For gold, the reaction was muted. A 0.28% decline is not a panic bid. That signals that the market sees the threat as real but contained. The Strait chokepoint matters for crude supply, not directly for bullion. Gold's safe-haven flow typically follows a sustained disruption in financial conditions or a dollar sell-off. Neither materialised on Friday morning.
The silver divergence tells a different story. Silver rose 0.10% while gold fell, a move more about industrial demand positioning than geopolitics. Silver often trades as a proxy for gold with higher beta. When it outpaces bullion in a risk-off session, it usually means the move is tactical, not structural.
In the retail market, the standard purity spread holds. 22-karat gold in Delhi priced at ₹132,862 per 10 grams, roughly 8.3% below the 24-karat rate, consistent with the typical 8.33% alloy markdown. Silver 999 fine in Delhi stood at ₹226,360 per kg, about 0.6% below the MCX futures price, reflecting local cash premiums or dealer margins.
City-level spreads remained tight. The widest gap between Delhi and Chennai for 24-karat gold was ₹660 per 10 grams, or 0.45%. That is normal for inter-city transport and dealer inventory costs. Nothing in the data suggests localised supply stress.
What moves next depends on the Hormuz flow data. If tanker crossings stay below 20 for a second consecutive week, gold could find a bid on oil price pass-through risk. If crossings recover above the 30-day average of 33, the geopolitical premium should fade quickly. Friday's MCX session will set the tone for Monday's open.
The key number to watch: the Kpler tanker count for Thursday. That data point, released Friday afternoon, will tell traders whether Wednesday's drop was a one-day blip or the start of a sustained disruption. Gold at ₹145,000 has limited upside without a second catalyst.
Prepared with AlphaScala research tooling and grounded in primary market data: live prices, fundamentals, SEC filings, hedge-fund holdings, and insider activity. Each story is checked against AlphaScala publishing rules before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.