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FOMC Minutes Show Near-Split on Rate Hike, Crypto Braces
Minutes from the Fed's June meeting reveal nine officials see at least one rate hike. Bitcoin and Ether already dropped 2-3% after the hawkish June decision. The next CPI and jobs data will tip the balance.
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The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its June 16-17 meeting on July 8 at 2:00 p.m. ET. Crypto markets are already pricing in a hawkish tone. Bitcoin slipped from the $65,000–$66,000 range it held before the June decision to $63,850–$64,400 in the aftermath. Ethereum dropped further in percentage terms, settling near $1,730–$1,750.
New Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first FOMC meeting. The rate decision itself was a hold at 3.5%–3.75%. That was expected. What surprised traders was the language. Warsh leaned heavily on price stability and offered no forward guidance on easing. The dot plot reinforced the message: the median year-end rate projection rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March. Nine of 18 officials now see at least one rate hike before the year closes out.
ETF outflows amplified the selling on both Bitcoin and Ethereum, several traders said. The minutes won't reveal anything new about the rate decision. What traders are hunting for is the internal debate. How many officials pushed for an immediate hike. Whether accelerating the tightening timeline was discussed. Whether anyone dissented from the hold.
Inflation at 4.2% gives Warsh room to stay hawkish. That number sits well above the Fed's 2% target. The dual mandate demands price stability, and the current reading does not give the committee a clean path to easing.