Fed’s Musalem: Tariff Normalization Key to 2% Inflation Goal

• Bond Market Sensitivity: If tariff effects roll off, the long end of the curve may see less pressure from inflation-expectations premiums.
• Forex Volatility: Traders monitoring the EUR/USD profile should watch for how the Fed’s trade-policy outlook contrasts with European domestic demand, as central bank divergence remains the primary driver of current price action.
• Equity Sector Rotation: A cooling inflation environment fueled by normalization in trade costs tends to benefit consumer discretionary and tech sectors, which are often sensitive to cost-of-goods-sold fluctuations.

Watching the Data

Market participants should focus on the upcoming PCE deflator releases to see if the goods-side disinflation Musalem alluded to is showing up in the broader data set. While the Fed looks at the aggregate, the underlying components—specifically durable goods—will tell the story of whether trade-policy impacts are truly abating.

Traders should also monitor the GBP/USD profile for any signs of global trade sensitivity that might contradict the Fed’s domestic outlook. If global supply chains remain fractured, the normalization Musalem expects could be delayed, forcing the Fed to re-evaluate its stance on the terminal rate.

Ultimately, the Fed is betting on a return to a pre-tariff supply equilibrium to do the heavy lifting for them. If the data fails to confirm this, expect volatility to pick up as the market reprices the terminal rate higher.