Deere Keeps Dividend Flat, Lifts Construction Sales 20%

Deere & Company declared a quarterly dividend of $1.62 per share, matching the prior payment and setting a forward yield of 1.23%. The ex-dividend date is June 30 with payment on August 10. The unchanged payout is the headline. A more consequential set of numbers appeared in the same release: a sharply raised construction and forestry sales forecast and a fiscal 2026 net income guide of $4.5 billion to $5 billion.

Deere's Construction & Forestry Sales Forecast Jumps 20%

Deere now expects construction and forestry sales to rise about 20% for fiscal 2026, a material upgrade from prior guidance. This segment had been the weaker leg of Deere's business relative to large agriculture. A double-digit growth forecast changes the revenue mix discussion. If the construction equipment cycle is turning, Deere stands to capture margin expansion in a division that faced pressure from dealer destocking and higher interest rates on equipment loans. The key question is whether the 20% figure assumes a broader infrastructure build-out or simply easier year-over-year comps from the 2025 trough.

FY2026 Net Income Guide Signals a Trough Floor

Deere guided fiscal 2026 net income at $4.5 billion to $5 billion. That figure lands against a backdrop of farm incomes under pressure from lower crop prices and elevated input costs. The net income guide implies earnings dilution relative to peak years. It may represent a trough-floor for the current agricultural equipment cycle. Investors watching the agriculture segment should note that Deere's Alpha Score sits at 25/100, rated Weak by AlphaScala’s proprietary system. That score reflects both valuation stretch and earnings revision risk, even as the construction outlook provides a partial offset.

Dividend Steady at 1.23% Yield Offers Thin Cushion

The dividend payment is unchanged rather than increased. That decision signals caution from management even though the payout remains sustainable within the guided earnings range. At the midpoint of net income, the dividend would consume roughly 35–40% of earnings. That is comfortable. It does not signal confidence in a near-term upturn in the core farm business. The forward yield sits at approximately 1.23%, which offers little income buffer in a portfolio. The investment case hinges on whether the construction rebound compensates for continued farm equipment weakness.

The ex-dividend date of June 30 means buyers after that date will not qualify for the next payment. For traders building a position, the more important timeline is the remainder of fiscal 2026. Deere's earnings calls will need to show that the construction uptick is real and not a one-off pull-forward. The full-year stock market analysis context matters here: cyclical industrials have been priced for a soft landing. Deere's construction guidance could be a leading indicator for infrastructure-sensitive peers. Watch for dealer inventory data and a follow-up on construction equipment build rates. If the 20% sales growth materializes, the stock could re-rate. If it fades, the dividend stability will not matter much. Review the DE stock page for updated metrics.