SpaceX IPO terms target $135 per share. Crypto perpetuals on Hyperliquid price it above $2 trillion, a 15-40% premium. Polymarket gives 64% odds the debut exceeds $2 trillion.
SpaceX hasn't opened on Nasdaq yet. Crypto markets have already decided the IPO price is too cheap.
Synthetic perpetual futures tied to Elon Musk's rocket company on Hyperliquid have pushed implied valuations well past the official IPO terms of $135 a share. Those terms target a valuation between $1.77 trillion and $1.8 trillion. The SPCX-USDC perpetual contract launched in mid-May 2026 with a $150 reference price and has since surged to highs of $216. At that level, the implied valuation sits comfortably above $2 trillion.
Polymarket, the prediction platform that has become a go-to barometer for event-driven bets, assigns a 64% probability that SpaceX will close its first trading day above $2 trillion.
SpaceX is aiming to raise $75 billion through its Nasdaq listing under the ticker SPCX. Trading is expected to begin around June 12. The traditional offering has reportedly attracted over $250 billion in demand – roughly fourfold oversubscribed.
On the crypto side, single-day trading volumes in SpaceX-linked derivative contracts have topped $500 million. The gap between Hyperliquid's implied valuation and the official IPO range represents a 15% to 40% premium, depending on the snapshot.
One detail buried in SpaceX's IPO filings has caught crypto-native investors' attention: the company holds roughly 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet. At various reporting dates during the process, that stash has been valued between $1.29 billion and $1.42 billion.
The risk is straightforward. Perpetual futures on Hyperliquid are synthetic instruments. They track market sentiment around SpaceX's price, not actual equity ownership. If SPCX opens below $135 on June 12, or disappoints in its first day of trading, leveraged long positions on Hyperliquid could unwind fast. Single-day volumes above $500 million create the conditions for a sharp liquidation cascade in a downturn.
For investors watching from the sidelines, the single metric to track on June 12 is where SPCX opens relative to $135, and how quickly it approaches or blows past the $2 trillion valuation that Polymarket and Hyperliquid traders have been betting on.
Hyperliquid's SPCX perpetual shows what happens when crypto-native speculators get a direct directional bet on a high-profile stock before it even trades. The 15-40% premium over the official IPO range reflects real demand from traders who see the offering as underpriced. A Polymarket probability above 50% for a $2 trillion close suggests the crowd expects a first-day pop.
The BTC holding adds a secondary layer. SpaceX's 18,712 BTC position means the company is effectively a corporate bitcoin holder with a crypto-native investor base. If SPCX opens strong, that base may argue the stock deserves a premium for the BTC exposure alone. If it opens weak, the BTC stash won't prevent a liquidation cascade.
The market will know by close of trading on June 12 whether the premium was a signal or a mirage.
Prepared with AlphaScala editorial tooling from the source reporting linked above. Indexable analysis may include a cited Alpha Score value. Publishing checks screen each story before release. Educational coverage, not personalized advice.