Crude Oil Breakdown: $86.97 Low Opens Path to $81.94

Crude oil fell to $86.97 on Thursday, breaking below the 100-day moving average and confirming a breakdown from a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that had held since March. The move followed a brief bounce from the 100-day MA on Tuesday that ran out of steam at $94.98, where resistance from a falling trend channel inside the triangle held. Thursday's price action – a high that tested that resistance, then a close near the low – reinforced the bearish signal.

The breakdown targets the April swing low at $81.94 as the first major support zone. Below that, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $79.65 and the March low at $76.83 come into play. The 200-day moving average, now at $73.98, has not been tested as support since February, when crude reclaimed it after a long-term bullish wedge breakout. A drop to that level would represent a 15% decline from current prices and would test the significance of that earlier breakout.

For a trader watching crude, the immediate level to track is $86.97. A daily close below that confirms the breakdown and opens the run to $81.94. A bounce that holds above the 100-day moving average – currently near $88.50 – would weaken the bearish case. The breakdown came after oil fell 5% on news that Trump canceled Iran strikes, adding to the bearish sentiment. That event is covered in more detail here.

Resistance zones to watch on any bounce include the 10-day moving average near $92.96 and Thursday's high at $94.98. The pattern suggests that bounces will attract sellers until the breakdown is invalidated by a close above $94.98. The 200-week moving average at $75.51 sits just above the March low, reinforcing that area as a potential support cluster. Until the 200-day MA rises above that range, the $76.83–$75.51 zone remains the key downside pivot.